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Model picks & player props
Baltimore Orioles
VS
Milwaukee Brewers

Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 8:33PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
American Family Field, Milwaukee
Indoor
Mon 19 May 2025, 11:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 10.5 (Total Runs)
The model graded 20 markets for Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $147 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 78.2%, fair odds 1.28, book price -213, model edge +10.2%. Tip-off Mon 19 May 2025, 11:40PM at American Family Field.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Under
10.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Baltimore Orioles

  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Samuel Basallo COut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Trevor Rogers SP

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Joey Ortiz SSDay-to-day
  • Cooper Pratt SSOut
  • Sal Frelick RFOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut
  • Joel Kuhnel RPOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Logan Henderson SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineMilwaukee BrewersNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1Free board9-8

Milwaukee Brewers moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LineMilwaukee Brewers run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1

Milwaukee Brewers spread form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Milwaukee Brewers vs Baltimore OriolesNo line posted

Milwaukee Brewers total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsMilwaukee Brewers team totalNo line posted
1.1runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA1.0Home L53-2vs Baltimore Orioles L54-1

Milwaukee Brewers team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.6 runs/gm.

Baltimore Orioles @ Milwaukee Brewers — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers — recent results

Milwaukee Brewers have won 4 of their last 5 games; Baltimore Orioles have won 2 of their last 5.

Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3MINHome
W4–3MINHome
L6–8MINHome
W5–2PITHome
W4–2PITHome
Baltimore Orioles — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–5TEXAway
L1–2TEXAway
L1–5TEXAway
L1–4LAAHome
W5–2LAAHome

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Joey Ortiz SSDAY-TO-DAY
Cooper Pratt SSOUT
Sal Frelick RFOUT
JoJo Romero RPOUT
Joel Kuhnel RPOUT
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
Rob Zastryzny RPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT
Baltimore Orioles
PlayerStatus
Ryan Helsley RPOUT
Blaze Alexander 3BOUT
Felix Bautista RPOUT
Samuel Basallo COUT
Chris Bassitt SPOUT
Colin Selby RPOUT
Ryan Mountcastle 1BOUT
Keegan Akin RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Baltimore Orioles vs Milwaukee Brewers in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Orioles vs Brewers, or as Brewers vs Orioles. The most recent game between them was Monday 19 May 2025 at American Family Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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