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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:18AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 5:10PM
20
Game Picks
2
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: New York Yankees -2.5 (Spread)
For New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox (MLB), model win probability 42.8%, fair odds 2.34, book price +230, model edge +12.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 27 Jun 2026, 5:10PM at Fenway Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
New York Yankees
-2.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Carlos Rodon SPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Max Fried SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ryan Weathers SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Ranger Suarez SPOut
  • Trevor Story SSOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Marcelo Mayer 2BOut
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Roman Anthony LFOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Payton Tolle SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 1:58AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Cody Bellinger LAD Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Paul Goldschmidt STL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF7.0L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L54-1

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF7.0L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L54-1

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
5.2implied team total
L5 RF7.0L5 RA1.6Home L54-1vs New York Yankees L54-1

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 5-0, 7.0 runs/gm.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Boston Red Sox are scoring 4.8 runs per game (5-0) while New York Yankees are at 2.6 (3-2); Boston Red Sox pitchers are allowing 1.8 earned runs per game versus 2.0 for New York Yankees.

4.8
Boston Red Sox runs/G
2.6
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesBoston Red SoxNew York Yankees
Runs / game4.82.6
Hits / game5.84.8
Home runs / game0.80.8
Walks drawn / game2.00.8
Batter K / game2.26.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.82.0
Pitching K / game4.84.4
Walks allowed / game0.62.2
L5 record5-03-2

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

<p>Latest MLB betting preview: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees stats and odds.</p>

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees : Over 9.5 Total Runs (+126)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees : Over 8.5 Total Runs (-115)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-179)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
8
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
27 Jun 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -3.5 ✓ HIT
27 Jun 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -2.5 ✓ HIT
27 Jun 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -1.5 ✓ HIT
27 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✗ MISS
27 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✗ MISS
27 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✗ MISS
26 Jun 26 Spread New York Yankees -2.5 ✗ MISS
26 Jun 26 Spread New York Yankees 3.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 27 June 2026 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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