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Model picks & player props
New York Yankees
VS
Boston Red Sox

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 3:54AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Fenway Park, Boston
Outdoor
Sat 27 Jun 2026, 5:10PM
20
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
New York Yankees -2.5 Spread +230

The model graded 22 markets for New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $330 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 27 Jun 2026, 5:10PM at Fenway Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win42.8%
The price says30.3%
Best price+230
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread New York Yankees -2.5 Lean43% chance +230
Moneyline High64% chance
Spread Lean52% chance
Spread Long-shot34% chance
Spread Long-shot26% chance
Spread Long-shot19% chance
Spread High78% chance
Total Runs Lean48% chance
Total Runs Lean57% chance
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 87%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Boston Red Sox -2.5 · $100 returned $420

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
New York Yankees
+3.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 2 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,403+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Boston Red SoxSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York YankeesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Yankees

  • Ryan McMahon 3BOut
  • George Lombard Jr. SSDay-to-day
  • Clarke Schmidt SPOut
  • Fernando Cruz RPOut
  • Kervin Castro RPOut
  • Aaron Judge RFOut
  • Giancarlo Stanton DHOut
  • Ryan Weathers SPOut

Probable pitcher

Will Warren SP

Boston Red Sox

  • Willson Contreras 1BDay-to-day
  • Tanner Houck SPOut
  • Curtis Mead 3BOut
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOut
  • Garrett Crochet SPOut
  • Masataka Yoshida DHOut
  • Justin Slaten RPOut
  • Triston Casas 1BOut
  • Zack Kelly RPOut
  • Johan Oviedo SPOut
  • Kutter Crawford SPOut

Probable pitcher

Ranger Suarez SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 9:52PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Cody Bellinger LAD Batter - Hits
Paul Goldschmidt STL Batter - Hits

+ 2 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBoston Red SoxNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L54-1Free board8-6

Boston Red Sox moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBoston Red Sox run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L54-1

Boston Red Sox spread form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesNo line posted

Boston Red Sox total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBoston Red Sox team totalNo line posted
1.5runs we expect
L5 RF2.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs New York Yankees L54-1

Boston Red Sox team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.0 runs/gm.

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox — what the model found

Our model graded 22 betting markets for New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox — 20 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 22 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 21 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox — recent results

Boston Red Sox have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Yankees have won 3 of their last 5.

Boston Red Sox — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–9NYYAway
W6–0NYYAway
L0–1NYYAway
L0–4MIAAway
W7–3MIAAway
New York Yankees — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W9–2BOSHome
L0–6BOSHome
W1–0BOSHome
L1–5HOUHome
W9–3HOUHome

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Boston Red Sox are scoring 4.8 runs per game (5-0) while New York Yankees are at 2.6 (3-2); Boston Red Sox pitchers are allowing 1.8 earned runs per game versus 2.0 for New York Yankees.

4.8
Boston Red Sox runs/G
2.6
New York Yankees runs/G
Last 5 gamesBoston Red SoxNew York Yankees
Runs / game4.82.6
Hits / game5.84.8
Home runs / game0.80.8
Walks drawn / game2.00.8
Batter K / game2.26.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.82.0
Pitching K / game4.84.4
Walks allowed / game0.62.2
L5 record5-03-2

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Boston Red Sox won 6, New York Yankees won 4.

DateBoston Red SoxNew York YankeesWinner
Aug 2929New York Yankees
Aug 2960Boston Red Sox
Aug 2801New York Yankees
Jun 2854Boston Red Sox
Jun 2741Boston Red Sox
Jun 2661Boston Red Sox
Jun 2563Boston Red Sox
Jun 716New York Yankees
Jun 553Boston Red Sox
Apr 2324New York Yankees

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Boston Red Sox
PlayerStatus
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Tanner Houck SPOUT
Curtis Mead 3BOUT
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2BOUT
Garrett Crochet SPOUT
Masataka Yoshida DHOUT
Justin Slaten RPOUT
Triston Casas 1BOUT
New York Yankees
PlayerStatus
Ryan McMahon 3BOUT
George Lombard Jr. SSDAY-TO-DAY
Clarke Schmidt SPOUT
Fernando Cruz RPOUT
Kervin Castro RPOUT
Aaron Judge RFOUT
Giancarlo Stanton DHOUT
Ryan Weathers SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees stats and odds.

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees : Over 9.5 Total Runs (+126)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
27 Jun 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -1.5 ✓ HIT
27 Jun 26 Spread Boston Red Sox -2.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Yankees vs Sox, or as Sox vs Yankees. The most recent game between them was Saturday 27 June 2026 at Fenway Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 58 meetings on record
Boston Red Sox 31–25 across the last 58 meetings · 2 draws · these games average 8.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
30 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees16–1New York Yankees
29 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees9–2New York Yankees
28 Aug 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees1–0New York Yankees
28 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox5–4Boston Red Sox
27 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox4–1Boston Red Sox
26 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox6–1Boston Red Sox
25 Jun 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox6–3Boston Red Sox
7 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees6–1New York Yankees
5 Jun 2026Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees3–5Boston Red Sox
23 Apr 2026New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox2–4New York Yankees

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 58 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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