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Model picks & player props
St. Louis Cardinals
VS
Baltimore Orioles

St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 25, 11:54AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
Outdoor
Tue 27 May 2025, 10:35PM
9
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 2.5 (Team Total Runs)
For St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles (MLB), model win probability 96.4%, fair odds 1.04, book price -345, model edge +18.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Tue 27 May 2025, 10:35PM at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Over
9.5
+ 8 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Ramon Urias 3BOut
  • Max Rajcic RPOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut

Probable pitcher

Dustin May SP

Baltimore Orioles

  • Samuel Basallo COut
  • Adley Rutschman COut
  • Ryan Helsley RPOut
  • Chris Bassitt SPOut
  • Blaze Alexander 3BOut
  • Keegan Akin RPOut
  • Felix Bautista RPOut
  • Colin Selby RPOut
  • Ryan Mountcastle 1BOut
  • Jordan Westburg 3BOut

Probable pitcher

Trevor Rogers SP
Availability updated Jul 25, 12:15AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineBaltimore OriolesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.0L5 RA4.2Home L54-1vs St. Louis Cardinals L54-1Win rec9-5

Baltimore Orioles moneyline form: last five 3-2, 5.0 runs/gm.

Run LineBaltimore Orioles run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.0L5 RA4.2Home L54-1vs St. Louis Cardinals L54-1ATS10-5

Baltimore Orioles spread form: last five 3-2, 5.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis CardinalsNo line posted

Baltimore Orioles total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsBaltimore Orioles team totalNo line posted
3.6implied team total
L5 RF5.0L5 RA4.2Home L54-1vs St. Louis Cardinals L54-1

Baltimore Orioles team total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.0 runs/gm.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Baltimore Orioles — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Featuring picks like NA props. Check out same game parlay, SGP picks, MLB parlay odds, baseball parlay.</p>

Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals : Over 0.5 alternate_team_totals (-3333)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Baltimore Orioles Over 0.5' for the Team Total Runs is a solid choice given the team's recent performance and the St. Louis Cardinals' defensive statistics. The Orioles have a strong recent home record, winning 4 of their last 5 games. They've also been scoring an average of 5.6 runs in their last 5 home games, which is significantly higher than the betting line of 0.5. In terms of batting, the Orioles have averaged 6.6 hits in their last 5 home games, indicating a good offensive performance. On the other hand, the Cardinals have allowed an average of 4.4 runs in their last 5 away games, which aligns with the Orioles' scoring ability. Given these statistics, it's highly likely that the Orioles will score more than 0.5 runs in the game.

Andre Pallante (STL) Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-417)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Andre Pallante for Over 2.5 in the Pitcher Strikeouts (Alternate) market is a solid choice based on his consistent performance. Pallante's overall average strikeouts in the last five games is 3.2, which is higher than the line set at 2.5. This demonstrates his ability to exceed the threshold. The same average holds for his last five away games, showing his performance doesn't significantly dip when playing on the road. Although his average strikeouts against the Orioles is lower, at 1, it's important to note that this is based on a significantly shorter innings pitched average of 1.1, compared to his overall innings pitched average of 5.2. This suggests that given more innings, Pallante's strikeouts could increase. Therefore, based on his overall performance, betting over 2.5 strikeouts for Andre Pallante is a statistically sound decision.

Andre Pallante (STL) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-1000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Andre Pallante's recent performance data indicates a strong likelihood of him allowing over 0.5 walks in the upcoming game against the Baltimore Orioles. Over his last five games, Pallante has averaged 2 walks overall and 2.2 walks in away games, both well above the 0.5 line set for this bet. Even though he has not allowed any walks against the Orioles in his last five encounters, his average pitching innings against them is only 1.1, significantly lower than his overall average of 5.2 innings. This suggests that the low walks against Orioles may be due to less time on the mound rather than superior control. Given this data and his current hit streak of 1, the bet for Pallante to allow over 0.5 walks is statistically well-founded.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for St. Louis Cardinals vs Baltimore Orioles in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 May 2025 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The model has generated 9 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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