Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens : Over 47.5 Total Points (-120)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The statistical data supports a bet on Over 47.5 for the NA vs NA game. The recent scoring history of both teams indicates a high probability of surpassing this total. In the last five games, the home team has averaged 20.2 points, and the away team has averaged 18.2 points. This equates to a combined average of 38.4 points per game, which is below the 47.5 point threshold. However, when looking at the score against averages, the home team has conceded 26 points per game, and the away team has conceded 24 points per game, giving a combined average of 50 points per game, which is above the target total. Therefore, considering the defensive weaknesses and scoring abilities of both teams, it's statistically plausible to expect a high-scoring game. Furthermore, the model edge of 0.184376144669747 suggests the model sees value in this bet, providing additional support for this choice.

Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens : NA Moneyline (+184)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on the Minnesota Vikings in the head-to-head market is justified by their recent performance metrics against those of the opposition. Though the Vikings' overall L5 record matches the opponent's at 2-3, their home record stands superior at 3-2. This suggests a strong home field advantage. They have also outperformed the opponent in terms of yardage, averaging 341.4 yards at home versus the opposition's 311.2. Furthermore, in terms of the Expected Points Added (EPA) metric, which quantifies the contribution of each play to the team’s scoring margin, the Vikings have a better home EPA difference of 6.02 compared to the opposition's negative overall EPA difference of -7.88. The Vikings also have a positive home turnover difference, indicating a better ball control. The provided model also gives the Vikings a 0.177 edge, which further strengthens the rationale for the bet.

Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens : NA +4.5 Point Spread (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on Minnesota Vikings with a 4.5 spread in the 'spreads' market is justified on several grounds. Firstly, the Minnesota Vikings have a model edge of 0.148, indicating a favorable probability of covering the spread. Despite both teams having a 2-3 record in their last five games, the home team has shown a weaker performance with an overall point differential of -5.8 compared to the Vikings' -5.8. The Vikings also hold an advantage in explosive rate for, with 0.246 compared to the home team's 0.230. In the EPA (Expected Points Added) analysis, the Vikings outperform the home team in pass EPA for and rush EPA for. The Vikings also have fewer turnovers in their recent away games, with an average of 1.2 compared to the home team's 1.4. This indicates a stronger offensive and defensive performance by the Vikings, supporting the bet.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Get Bet Better Pro