On Sunday 9 August 2026, Mateusz Gamrot takes on Quillan Salkilld in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 4.5 Total Rounds, priced at -135 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 4.5 Total Rounds (-135)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Mateusz Gamrot and Quillan Salkilld are both tough fighters, but I think this fight might not go the distance. Gamrot is a skilled striker, while Salkilld has a reputation for finishing fights quickly. Since our numbers suggest they might combine for just about 1.8 rounds, betting on under 4.5 rounds feels like a decent option. Of course, nothing is guaranteed in fighting, and it's possible it could go longer. But given their styles, it seems likely one of them will find a way to end it early. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Quillan Salkilld to Win (-127)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Quillan Salkilld is a strong pick to win against Mateusz Gamrot. Salkilld is known for his striking skills, which could give him the upper hand in the stand-up exchanges. If he can keep the fight on his feet and avoid getting taken down by Gamrot, he has a good chance to score points and land some clean shots. While there's always a chance for surprises in fights, Salkilld looks like he has what it takes to come out on top this time. Remember, though, anything can happen in the octagon! It was priced at -127 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.90 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Quillan Salkilld -5.5 on the Line (+100)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Quillan Salkilld is facing Mateusz Gamrot in what should be an exciting fight. Salkilld has a strong striking style and can really control the pace if he stays on his feet. To win, he needs to keep Gamrot from getting close and using his wrestling skills. Our numbers show that Salkilld has a good chance to win by more than five points, which means he could win by a decent margin. Remember, anything can happen in a fight, but this pick looks promising. It was priced at +100 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Mateusz Gamrot: last five W-L-W-L-W, on a 1-fight win streak, 10% of career wins came by knockout, 120 days since the last fight
  • Quillan Salkilld: last five W-W-W-W-W, on a 6-fight win streak, 23% of career wins came by knockout, 99 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Mateusz Gamrot v Quillan Salkilld. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Unlock all picks