On Friday 9 October 2026, Everton play Chelsea in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton +0.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -175 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, recent form and trends paint a compelling picture for the Toffees. At home, Everton has boasted a sturdy 2-2-1 record in their last five matches, showcasing a defensive solidity that has limited opponents to just 0.6 goals per game. Their attacking prowess is promising, averaging 1.8 goals at home, and with 15.8 shots per game, they’re not shy about testing the opposition. Conversely, Chelsea has struggled on the road, with just one win in their last five away games, conceding an average of 2 goals per match. With Everton's home advantage and Chelsea's inconsistency, betting on Everton with a +0.5 handicap presents a strong opportunity. The Toffees are likely to capitalize on Chelsea's vulnerabilities, making this a savvy play in what promises to be a competitive clash.
Everton vs Chelsea: Draw Moneyline (+275)
Odds correct at time of publishing
As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, the stage is set for a tightly contested affair. Both teams have shown flashes of promise, but recent trends hint at a stalemate. Everton's home record stands at 2-2-1 in their last five matches, and they’ve managed a healthy average of 1.8 goals scored at home, albeit against teams allowing 1.6. Chelsea, on the other hand, has struggled to capitalize on their chances, netting just 1.2 goals away while conceding 2.0. Their last five encounters against Everton reveal a tendency for draws, with both teams finding it hard to breach each other's defenses. The overall xG numbers reflect a lack of clear-cut chances, suggesting we might be in for a low-scoring duel. With both sides' current form and historical context pointing towards a draw, this bet holds considerable allure.
That is how our model reads Everton v Chelsea. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
Unlock the rest of this one
You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.
Unlock the full article