On Tuesday 13 October 2026, Everton play Chelsea in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Everton +0.75 Goal Handicap, priced at -196 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Everton vs Chelsea: Everton +0.75 Goal Handicap (-196)
Odds correct at time of publishing As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, there's a compelling case to back the Toffees with a 0.75 handicap. Despite a shaky home record, they've shown resilience, averaging 1.8 goals at Goodison Park recently while conceding just 1.6. Their last five outings against Chelsea saw them snag a win and three draws, demonstrating they can hold their own against this formidable opponent. Chelsea’s away struggles add to the intrigue; they’ve averaged a mere 1.2 goals on the road and have dropped points in crucial matches. The gap in expected goals (xG) between these two suggests that Everton’s attacking prowess, combined with a more stable defense, could lead to a home advantage here. With Everton pushing for a much-needed result, a 0.75 handicap bet feels like a savvy move, allowing for a draw or narrow win to still secure our stake.
Everton vs Chelsea: Over 1.5 Total Goals (-476)
Odds correct at time of publishing As Everton prepares to host Chelsea, the stage is set for a lively encounter. Recent form highlights Everton's struggles, yet they’ve managed to net an average of 1.8 goals at home while conceding about 1.6. On the flip side, Chelsea's away performances have been a mixed bag, scoring around 1.2 and allowing 2 per game. With both teams showing vulnerabilities in defense—Everton allowing nearly 1.6 goals at home and Chelsea's shaky backline—this clash has all the ingredients for a few goals. Considering the attacking intent from both sides, Everton’s 15.8 shots average combined with Chelsea’s tendency to leak goals suggests that the Over 1.5 total goals market is a compelling choice. Given the way these teams have matched up recently, it’s hard to envision a scenario without at least two goals surfacing in this showdown. Expect fireworks!
That is how our model reads Everton v Chelsea. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.