Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel Turner is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 56%, edge +17.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 2:29AM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-128 (1.78) · $100→$178
+17.8% Edge
Melbourne Demons
@
Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sun 18 May, 5:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
74 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 74.0% · the book's price implies 56.2% · gap +17.8%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 74.0% | — | 56.2% | 1.35 | +17.8% |
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Daniel Turner (Narrm) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-128)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Placeholder API response for model: gpt-3.5-turbo
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Season averages (2024)
Daniel Turner averaged 7.9 disposals, 1.1 goals and 3.9 marks per game across 15 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Disposals
Daniel Turner has cleared 9.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
o9.590%
o10.590%
o11.590%
o13.570%
o14.550%
o16.540%
o17.540%
o18.530%
o20.510%
o21.510%
o23.50%
o24.50%
Home / away and opponent splits
Daniel Turner is averaging 14.0 disposals per game over his last 5.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Daniel Turner recorded 8 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 23 Aug 24 | Collingwood | 8 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 11 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Port Adelaide | 11 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| 2 Aug 24 | Western Bulldogs | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 27 Jul 24 | GWS GIANTS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Jul 24 | Fremantle | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Essendon | 8 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 Jul 24 | West Coast Eagles | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 28 Jun 24 | Brisbane Lions | 10 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 22 Jun 24 | North Melbourne | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Daniel Turner (Narrm) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel Turner is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.8% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Brisbane Lions on Sunday 18 May at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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