Here are our AFL picks for Wednesday 26 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Jeremy Howe (Collingwood) Over 11.5 player_kicks_over, priced at -133 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Jeremy Howe (Collingwood) Over 11.5 player_kicks_over (-133)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to aerial prowess and defensive acumen, Jeremy Howe stands tall in the AFL landscape. As Collingwood journeys to the hostile territory of the MCG to face the Western Bulldogs, Howe's ability to read the play and intercept with precision makes him a prime candidate to surpass the 11.5 kicks mark. With a model prediction of 14 kicks and an impressive 18.4% edge, the stats are in our favor. Howe's knack for launching attacking raids from the backline and setting up crucial plays under pressure sets the stage for a kicking masterclass. Expect him to patrol the defensive arc like a seasoned sentinel, racking up possessions and launching pinpoint kicks to ignite Collingwood's forward thrusts. Betting on Howe to exceed 11.5 kicks is not just a numbers game; it's a testament to his on-field prowess and strategic importance in the Magpies' game plan.

Trent Rivers (Melbourne) Over 11.5 player_kicks_over (-122)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Trent Rivers. The young gun from Melbourne has been turning heads this season with his precise kicking and cool-headed decision-making. As the Dees gear up to face the Blues at the hallowed MCG, all signs point to Rivers snagging more than 11.5 kicks. With a model prediction of 14.2 kicks and a solid edge of 17.9%, Trent is set to shine on his home turf. Plus, considering his recent form and the strategic advantage of playing at the imposing MCG, it's easy to see why the smart money is on Rivers racking up the possessions. So, if you're looking for a reliable bet to get your heart racing this weekend, backing Trent Rivers to go over 11.5 kicks is a solid play. Expect him to split the middle and deliver a kicking masterclass against Carlton.

Adam Cerra (Carlton) Under 21.5 Disposals (-118)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adam Cerra, the Carlton Blues' midfield maestro, is set to face a tough challenge against the Melbourne Demons at the hallowed MCG. While Cerra has been a standout performer, averaging 18.6 disposals in his last five away games, the stats suggest a different narrative this time. Facing off against a formidable Melbourne side that limits opponents to an average of 23 disposals, Cerra might find it challenging to hit his usual numbers. With a model predicting him at 18.9 disposals and a recent hit rate of 5 out of 7 unders in away games, the Under 21.5 disposals market for Cerra appears enticing. Expect Melbourne's defensive pressure to disrupt Cerra's usual flow, making the under a solid play for this clash.

Jack Viney (Melbourne) Over 3.5 player_clearances_over (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to hard-nosed, contested footy, Jack Viney stands out as a warrior in the midfield battleground. With the Melbourne Demons hosting Carlton Blues at the iconic MCG, Viney will be primed to dominate the clearances. The stats paint a compelling picture – Viney boasts an average of 5.1 clearances per game, well above the line set at 3.5. This suggests he's not just meeting expectations but exceeding them consistently. With a model edge of 17.6% in his favor, the data indicates that Viney is poised to take control of the stoppages and propel his team forward. In front of a roaring home crowd, expect Viney to dig deep, win the hard ball, and deliver on the over for clearances.

Bailey Dale (Western Bulldogs) Over 4.5 player_marks_over (-147)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Bailey Dale, the man with the sticky hands, is poised to dominate the marking game in the upcoming Bulldogs vs. Magpies clash. With a stellar average of 5 marks in his last 5 home games, he thrives under the Friday night lights at the MCG. Against Collingwood, his marks skyrocket to an impressive 2.7, showing he loves nothing more than plucking the ball from the sky against these foes. Dale's recent form is red-hot, snagging an average of 5.6 marks per game overall. But what sets him apart is his ability to take contested marks when it matters most, averaging 0.2 per game. With the model predicting him to hit 6 marks, well above the 4.5 line, the smart money is on Bailey Dale to soar above the pack and secure our 'Marks Over' bet.

Kysaiah Pickett (Melbourne) Under 24.5 Disposals (-119)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Kysaiah Pickett's recent performance at the MCG, he's been a force to be reckoned with, but the numbers suggest a different story this time. Over his last five home games, Pickett has been averaging around 24 disposals, right on the line set at 24.5. However, digging deeper, we see that when facing Carlton specifically, his numbers drop significantly to just 11.2 disposals per game. With a current hit streak of 2 at home and a solid 63.4% disposal efficiency, Pickett is no slouch. But facing the Blues might limit his touches this time around. Considering his recent trends and matchup history, the smart play here seems to be taking the Under on Pickett's disposals against Carlton.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article