Here are our AFL picks for Saturday 22 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Lachie Whitfield (GWS GIANTS) Under 28.5 Disposals, priced at -109 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Lachie Whitfield (GWS GIANTS) Under 28.5 Disposals (-109)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Lachie Whitfield hitting the Under 28.5 disposals mark against the Adelaide Crows, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Despite his recent form showing an average of 28.4 disposals in away games, he faces a tough challenge besting his L5 average of 27.4 overall disposals. His history against the Crows is no walk in the park either, with an average of 31.4 disposals in their last five encounters. With his contested possessions at 5.4 and turnovers at 2.8 in away games, Whitfield might find it challenging to rack up the disposals needed to surpass the 28.5 line. Add in his recent hit rate of 4/6, and the odds seem to favor a more subdued performance this time around. Betting on Whitfield to go under 28.5 disposals could be a shrewd move in this matchup at Adelaide Oval.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Bailey Smith, the dynamic midfielder for the Geelong Cats, is set to face off against the Richmond Tigers at the electric GMHBA Stadium. While Smith has been a pivotal figure in the Cats' lineup, recent trends suggest a potential underplay in his disposals. Over his last 5 home games, he's averaged 32.6 disposals, just shy of the 33.5 line. Despite his solid form, his recent matchups against Richmond have seen him fall below the 33.5 threshold, averaging 28 disposals. With a slight dip in overall disposals efficiency at 62.6%, Smith might face a tougher challenge against the Tigers. Considering his recent performances and the matchup dynamics, backing the under on Smith's disposals could be a shrewd move in this highly anticipated clash.
Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) Under 22.5 Disposals (-110)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Finn O'Sullivan, the Kangaroos' midfield maestro, heads into the clash against the Swans with a target on his back. Despite recent away form showing a solid 15.8 disposals average, his numbers fall slightly below the sportsbet line of 22.5. With a trend of 7 consecutive under-achievements on disposals in away games, he faces a formidable challenge against a Sydney side he's historically struggled to dominate, averaging just 20 disposals in their recent encounters. O'Sullivan's efficiency and contested possessions are commendable, but his ability to rack up high numbers consistently is in question. The data suggests a gritty battle awaits, with Finn likely to fall short of the 22.5 disposals line, making the 'Under' an intriguing bet with favorable odds.
Darcy Byrne-Jones (Port Adelaide) Under 24.5 Disposals (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Looking at Darcy Byrne-Jones' recent form, the numbers paint a clear picture for our bet on him to go under 24.5 disposals against Essendon. In his last five away games, he's been hovering around 23.8 disposals, just under the line. Despite facing Essendon previously and averaging 15 disposals, his overall average of 21.4 falls comfortably below the threshold. With a solid 76.7% disposal efficiency but only 8.8 handballs on average away, he might not be as involved in the play as needed to hit the over. Considering his recent hit streaks and the likelihood of maintaining his trend of staying under 24.5 disposals, this bet on Darcy Byrne-Jones to come in under the line looks promising.
Dyson Sharp (Essendon) Under 22.5 Disposals (-115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Essendon's Dyson Sharp, the numbers tell a clear story for this weekend's clash against Port Adelaide. Sharp has been a consistent performer, but recent trends suggest he might fall just short of the 22.5 disposal line. Over his last 5 home games, he's averaged 20.6 disposals, with a solid contested possessions average of 8.2. However, facing Port Adelaide, he's had a slightly lower average of 5 disposals in their previous encounters. With his disposal efficiency at 73.6% in recent home games, Sharp is efficient but may not see the volume needed to breach the 22.5 mark against a tough opponent. Considering his current form and matchup history, backing Sharp to stay under 22.5 disposals could be a smart move for this game at Marvel Stadium.
Angus Clarke (Essendon) Over 11.5 Disposals (-164)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Angus Clarke is set to light up Marvel Stadium as the Essendon Bombers take on the Port Adelaide Power. With a model prediction of 16.2 disposals, Clarke's recent form backs up the stats. Over his last five home games, he's been a ball magnet, averaging a whopping 13.8 disposals, comfortably surpassing the 11.5 line. His precise foot skills with a 79.8% disposal efficiency and ability to cover ground with 268.8 meters gained per game make him a reliable midfield engine. Clarke's consistency, combined with a recent hit streak and a hunger to dominate, points towards him once again eclipsing the 11.5 disposals mark, making this prop bet a tantalizing opportunity for footy punters.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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