Here are our AFL picks for Wednesday 26 August 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Fremantle Dockers -16.5, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Fremantle Dockers -16.5 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Fremantle Dockers are set to dominate the Hawthorn Hawks in this matchup at Optus Stadium. In their last five home games, the Dockers have been on fire, boasting an impressive average margin of 42.4 points and scoring an average of 94.8 points per game. Their ability to penetrate inside 50s with an average of 57 and convert with an average of 13.8 goals showcases their offensive prowess. On the defensive end, they have been solid, conceding just 52.4 points on average. On the other hand, the Hawthorn Hawks have struggled on the road, with an average points against of 69 and a margin of 29.4 in their last five away games. Their defense might not be able to contain the Dockers' attacking onslaught, especially considering Fremantle's strong home form. With the Dockers' recent form and home advantage, backing them to cover the spread of -16.5 looks like a smart play.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Hawthorn Hawks Win (+196)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When looking at the upcoming clash between the Fremantle Dockers and the Hawthorn Hawks, the Hawks emerge as the intriguing bet. Riding a wave of solid form, the Hawks boast impressive scoring averages on the road, notching up 98.4 points per game in their last five away fixtures. Their midfield dominance shines through with an average of 38.8 total clearances and 137.4 contested possessions during this period. On the flip side, the Dockers have faltered defensively at home, conceding an average of 52.4 points and struggling to contain opposition inside 50s. With the Hawks' scoring prowess and midfield strength, paired with the Dockers' defensive vulnerabilities, backing Hawthorn to snag the win at Optus Stadium seems like a smart play.
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Hawthorn Hawks 16.5 (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The stage is set at Optus Stadium as the Fremantle Dockers brace to host the Hawthorn Hawks in a clash that promises fireworks. Recent form paints an intriguing picture: Fremantle, in their last five home games, averaged a margin of 42.4 points but conceded an average of 52.4 points, revealing defensive vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, the Hawks, with an impressive average of 98.4 points scored in their last five away games, are no strangers to hitting the scoreboard. With a solid track record and an average margin of 29.4 points on the road, Hawthorn seems poised to challenge the spread. Expect a high-scoring affair with the Hawks looking to capitalize on Fremantle's defensive lapses, making Hawthorn Hawks +16.5 a compelling play for footy punters.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When looking at the upcoming clash between the Melbourne Demons and the Carlton Blues at the iconic MCG, the data paints a compelling picture in favor of the Demons. Over their last five home games, Melbourne has shown dominance with an average margin of 10.2 points and an impressive 98.2 points scored per game. Their midfield prowess is evident, averaging 37.4 total clearances and 138.2 contested possessions during this stretch. On the defensive end, they have limited opponents to just 88 points on average. In contrast, Carlton has struggled on the road, averaging only 81.6 points scored and conceding 73.2 points in their last five away games. With Melbourne's strong home form and Carlton's inconsistencies on the road, backing the Demons to snag the win seems like a prudent bet for footy fans.
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
As Friday night footy lights up the iconic MCG, the Western Bulldogs clash with the Collingwood Magpies in a tantalizing showdown. The Bulldogs, known for their attacking prowess, have been firing shots aplenty but might face a challenge against Collingwood's solid defense. In their last five home games, the Bulldogs have been averaging 55.2 Inside50s and 24.6 Shotsatgoal, but their average Target Goals sit at 12, translating to an average of 80.8 Points For. On the other end, the Magpies have been tough to crack away, conceding an average of 90.8 points in their last five away games and 103.4 overall. With the Bulldogs potentially facing a stingy Collingwood defense, the under 41.5 Team Totals H1 bet for the Bulldogs seems like a shrewd play to consider.
Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Magpies: Under 20.5 team_totals_q1 (-108)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's dive into the matchup between the Western Bulldogs and Collingwood Magpies at the hallowed MCG. The Bulldogs have been firing on all cylinders lately, but when it comes to the first quarter, they've been a tad conservative. Over their last five home games, they've been averaging around 24 shots at goal and 12 goals, translating into an average of 80 points. On the flip side, the Magpies haven't been the most welcoming hosts defensively, conceding around 90 points in their last five away games and a hefty 103 points overall. With the Bulldogs potentially starting a bit cautiously and Collingwood's defensive vulnerabilities, the Under 20.5 on the Western Bulldogs' Team Totals in Q1 looks like a savvy play here. It's all about setting the tone early and grinding out that edge on Friday night.
That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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