Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 07/20 (Ben Ainsworth Highlights): Finding the Edge

Murphy Reid presents a promising opportunity to snag a goal in the upcoming Collingwood vs. Fremantle clash. Despite a modest 0.6 goals average in his last five games, Reid's 1 goal average against Collingwood and a recent increase in goal accuracy to 43.3% provide a solid foundation. With an average of 1.8 shots per game and 3.6 inside 50s, Reid's involvement in scoring plays is notable. Additionally, his 4.4 score involvements per game suggest an active offensive presence. Considering these stats, his recent form, and the model's prediction of 1 goal, Reid seems poised to exceed the 0.5 goal line, making this bet on him to score anytime a compelling choice.

Bailey Humphrey (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-204)

Bailey Humphrey presents a strong case for scoring in the upcoming Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns clash. His recent form, averaging 1 goal in the last 5 away games, coupled with an average of 3 shots at goal per game, indicates a high offensive involvement. Additionally, Humphrey's 58.0% goal accuracy over the last 5 games suggests efficient finishing. Facing an opponent where he has historically averaged 1 goal in their away matchups further supports his scoring potential. With an implied probability of 67.1% and a model edge of 16.9%, Humphrey's consistent goal-scoring trend and offensive contributions make him a favorable choice to snag a goal in this game.

Jye Amiss (Fremantle) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-222)

Jye Amiss is a strong pick to snag a goal in the Collingwood vs. Fremantle matchup. With a model-predicted average of 1.3 goals and a solid 56.7% goal accuracy in his last five away games, Amiss outperforms his opponent's defensive average of 0.2 goals. His recent form includes 1.2 goals per game, indicating a consistent scoring threat. Amiss's ability to generate shots at goal (2.2 average) and contribute to scores (3.8 score involvements) further supports his goal-scoring potential. The data suggests Amiss is likely to surpass the 0.5 goal line set by the sportsbook, making him a favorable choice for the anytime goalscorer bet.

Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-182)

Michael Frederick is a strong bet to score anytime against Collingwood based on his recent form. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 away games and a solid goal accuracy of 24.0%, he has been consistent in finding the big sticks. His involvement in scoring plays, averaging 5 score involvements per game, showcases his impact on the Fremantle attack. Additionally, facing Collingwood, where he has averaged 2 goals in their last encounters, adds to his goal-scoring potential. With an implied probability of 64.5% and a model edge of 15.9%, the odds of 1.55 offer value for Frederick to snag a goal in this matchup at the MCG.

Bailey Smith (Geelong Cats) Over 24.5 Disposals (-357)

Bailey Smith is a strong Over 24.5 Disposals bet. His model-projected 32.3 disposals, with a 15.9% edge, suggests he'll exceed the line. Smith's recent form, averaging 30.4 disposals in home games and hitting a 6-game streak, indicates a consistent performance. Facing St Kilda, against whom he averages 28.5 disposals, supports his ability to meet or surpass the line. His high disposals, efficient 62.4% usage, and solid metres gained of 682.6 back his capability. With a 14/14 hit rate overall and 6/6 at home, Smith is primed to snag more than 24.5 disposals, making this a compelling bet.