Here are our AFL picks for Friday 4 September 2026. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Callum Ah Chee (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals, priced at -115 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Callum Ah Chee (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Callum Ah Chee (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -115 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.70 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Isaac Cumming (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Isaac Cumming (Adelaide Crows) Over 11.5 Disposals. It was priced at -169 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Adam Cerra (Carlton) Under 21.5 Disposals (-114)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Geelong Cats play Carlton Blues in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Adam Cerra (Carlton) Under 21.5 Disposals. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Michael Sellwood (Western Bulldogs) Over 9.5 Disposals (-185)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Michael Sellwood (Western Bulldogs) Over 9.5 Disposals. It was priced at -185 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.40 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Rory Lobb (Western Bulldogs) Over 10.5 Disposals (-109)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Rory Lobb (Western Bulldogs) Over 10.5 Disposals. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Rory Lobb (Western Bulldogs) Over 10.5 Disposals (-109)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Adelaide Crows play Western Bulldogs in the AFL. The bet we are looking at is Rory Lobb (Western Bulldogs) Over 10.5 Disposals. It was priced at -109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the model's read on today's AFL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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