Public sports prediction models: the open directory
FiveThirtyEight closed in March 2025 and took the best-known public sports
forecasts with it. The models below are the ones still publishing in the open — free to
read, most of them free to download. For each: what it covers, what it publishes, and whether
you can get the numbers as data.
Every link checked live on 9 September 2026 · Re-checked quarterly ·
Missing a model that publishes in the open? Tell us and we will add it.
What counts. A model has to publish its own numbers
(ratings, predicted scores or win chances) publicly and regularly. Bookmaker "computer
picks" pages and tipster services are not models and are not listed. Sites that have
gone dark are removed at the quarterly check.
American football
NFL · Elo ratings, win probabilities, spreads · free to read
An Elo-based NFL model with QB adjustments, published every week with game-by-game win chances and a comparison against the betting line.
NFL · interactive season forecast · free to read
The closest thing to the old FiveThirtyEight NFL interactive: playoff and Super Bowl chances for every team, updated through the season.
NFL · player and team ratings, game projections · free to read
Built by ex-team analytics staff; publishes team and player grades and weekly game projections.
NFL · college football · power ratings, win chances · free to read
ESPN’s in-house rating with game-by-game win probabilities and playoff odds for the NFL and college football.
Across many sports
NFL · NBA · MLB · NHL · college · interactive forecasts · free to read
Started by former FiveThirtyEight staff to keep the interactive forecasts alive; season and playoff chances across the major US leagues.
NFL · NBA · MLB · NHL · Elo and ratings analysis · free to read
Ex-FiveThirtyEight sports editor publishing Elo-style ratings, rankings and forecast write-ups across the big four leagues.
40+ sports · ratings, game predictions, composite rankings · free to read
Kenneth Massey’s long-running rating system, plus the famous composite that averages dozens of published computer rankings.
NFL · NBA · MLB · NHL · college · predictions and rankings · free tier
Team rankings and game predictions across US sports, with a free tier and a paid layer for deeper picks.
NBA · NFL · win probability, team ratings · free to read
Mike Beuoy’s live win-probability charts and market-implied team ratings for the NBA and NFL.
NFL · NBA · MLB · NHL · college · soccer · predicted scores, win chances · free to read
Predicted scores and win probabilities for every game across a wide set of leagues, published daily.
NFL · college football · NBA · college basketball · MLB · NHL · tracks 50+ systems · free to read
Todd Beck’s tracker collects the predictions of dozens of public computer systems each week and grades them against the results and the betting line — the scoreboard for everything else on this page.
College basketball
college basketball · efficiency ratings, game predictions · free rankings, paid detail
The reference rating system for college basketball; the headline rankings are free, the game-level detail is subscription.
Soccer
club soccer, Europe · Elo ratings, match probabilities · open data (API)
Elo ratings for European club football going back decades, with a free API that returns full history as CSV.
international soccer · Elo ratings · free to read
The long-running Elo table for national teams, updated after every international match.
Tennis
ATP · WTA · Elo ratings, match forecasts · open data (GitHub)
Jeff Sackmann’s Elo ratings, tournament forecasts and the open match-results datasets most tennis models are built on.
Australian rules football
AFL · aggregates 20+ public models · open data (API)
The AFL model aggregator: every public tipping model’s predictions side by side, ladder projections, and a free API.
AFL · player and team ratings, predictions · free to read
Player-rating-based AFL analysis and weekly predictions from one of the longest-running independent footy analytics sites.
Bet Better (this site)
NFL · NCAAF · NBA · MLB · NHL · AFL · NRL · WNBA · soccer · tennis · predicted scores, win chances, power rankings · open data (CSV/JSON, CC BY 4.0)
Our own models: a predicted score, margin, total and win chance for every game priced, as a page and as data (add ?format=csv), plus power rankings. Every pick the model publishes is graded in public, losses included. Listed last on purpose; judge it by the same standard as the rest.
Only our own card carries a score.
We grade our own picks against the final results, so we can show the number; we do not keep a
record of anyone else’s predictions, so we do not put a number on their card.
See every graded pick.
Not listed, and why
Gone: FiveThirtyEight’s live forecasts (closed March 2025; the
archive is still up), Football
Outsiders, Jeff Sagarin’s own site. Not models: bookmaker “computer
picks” pages and tipster services. If a listed site stops publishing, it comes off at the
next quarterly check.
This directory is free to reuse under
CC BY 4.0.
Companion research: Do betting odds tell the truth? ·
State of the Vig 2026 ·
all studies.