State of the Vig 2026: what a bet cost this quarter
Between 1 July and 8 September 2026 we measured the bookmaker's built-in margin
— the "vig" — on 69.6 million pre-match betting markets across
53 bookmakers and 14 sports. A simple who-wins bet cost about $4.80 of every $100
staked. A player prop cost $7.60. The same dollar bought
noticeably less in some sports than others.
Third-quarter report · Data 1 July – 8 September 2026 · Published 9 September 2026 ·
Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with attribution
The headline: the type of bet matters more than the sport
Every number below is the share of your stake the bookmaker expects to keep, built into the
prices. It is not a fee you see; it is the reason both sides of a coin-flip pay less than
even money.
| Market type | Markets | July | August | Sept (to 8th) | Trend |
|---|
| Head-to-head (two outcomes) | 7.87M | 4.78% | 4.82% | 4.87% | creeping up |
| Spreads / handicaps | 10.29M | 4.96% | 5.65% | 5.73% | up sharply |
| Totals (over/under) | 19.49M | 5.57% | 6.22% | 6.37% | up sharply |
| Head-to-head (three outcomes, draw possible) | 7.84M | 7.64% | 7.56% | 7.45% | easing |
| Player props | 23.82M | 7.78% | 7.71% | 7.54% | easing |
Three things stand out.
- Player props cost about 60% more than a simple who-wins bet. 7.6% against
4.8%. Props are the fastest-growing market type and the most expensive one.
- Spreads and totals got dearer as the football season arrived. Both jumped
between July and August, when NFL and college football lines came online. Football
lines simply carry more margin than the baseball lines that dominated July.
- A draw makes a bet cost more. Three-outcome markets (soccer-style, where
the draw is a third result) ran at 7.5%, half again the two-outcome figure.
By sport: who-wins bets, July to September
Two-outcome head-to-head markets only, so every sport is measured on the same kind of bet.
Markets are weighted by how many were observed; competitions with fewer than 1,000
observations are left out.
| Sport | Markets | Average margin | |
|---|
| Baseball (MLB) | 892,582 | 4.34% | |
| Basketball (NBA) | 456,799 | 4.62% | |
| College football (NCAAF) | 1,516,007 | 4.64% | |
| American football (NFL) | 1,715,483 | 4.69% | |
| Ice hockey (NHL) | 435,880 | 4.72% | |
| Mixed martial arts (UFC) | 884,439 | 5.05% | |
| Australian rules (AFL) | 127,766 | 5.21% | |
| Rugby league (NRL) | 131,971 | 5.34% | |
| Basketball (WNBA) | 223,513 | 5.42% | |
| Tennis (ATP, US Open) | 600,006 | 5.55% | |
| Tennis (WTA, US Open) | 575,909 | 5.61% | |
| Cricket (Caribbean Premier League) | 46,063 | 6.01% | |
| Cricket (T20 internationals) | 23,980 | 6.24% | |
The cheapest sport to bet on was baseball; the dearest was cricket. A cricket
T20 bet carried about 44% more margin than an MLB bet. The big American leagues cluster
tightly between 4.3% and 4.7% — they are the most competitively priced markets in the
world, because the most bookmakers compete on them. The Australian codes, tennis and
cricket sit a full point higher.
By sport: player props
| Sport | Prop markets | Average margin |
|---|
| American football (NFL) | 2,475,596 | 6.71% |
| Basketball (NBA, preseason lines) | 135,666 | 6.84% |
| Australian rules (AFL) | 189,262 | 7.18% |
| College football (NCAAF) | 716,144 | 7.60% |
| Basketball (WNBA) | 1,444,421 | 7.60% |
| Baseball (MLB) | 18,848,065 | 7.75% |
Baseball props are the biggest prop market by a distance — 18.8 million observations,
four in every five prop markets we saw — and among the most expensive. NFL props were
the cheapest props, though still well above any who-wins market.
What a bettor can do with this. Nothing here makes betting
profitable; the margin is why, on average, it is not. But the margin is not fixed. The
same who-wins bet cost 4.3% in one sport and 6.2% in another, and props cost 60% more than
sides. Choosing the market type, and the bookmaker, is the one lever a recreational
bettor actually controls.
How this was measured
We continuously record publicly displayed pre-match betting prices for research. For every
market observation we convert each price to an implied probability
(1 ÷ decimal price), add them up, and subtract 100%. That surplus is the
margin. The daily panel behind this report is published, with a CSV, at
the Margin Index; this report is the quarter's fixed
summary of it.
- Period: 1 July – 8 September 2026 (70 days).
- Scope: 69,620,750 market observations across 53 bookmakers; pre-match only.
- Grouping: by market type (head-to-head two- and three-outcome, spreads, totals,
player props) and by sport; monthly means are averages of the daily means.
- Excluded: in-play prices, suspended markets (margins below 0% or above 20%),
and betting exchanges (they charge commission instead of margin).
- Sports with under 1,000 observations are not shown in the sport tables.
Limitations, stated plainly. This is one quarter, covering the
end of the baseball and Australian seasons and the start of the football seasons; sports
out of season are under-represented or absent. Bookmakers price different competitions to
different depths. And the head-to-head figure is a floor: multis, props and exotic markets
cost more, as the tables above show.
Reusing this
Published under CC BY 4.0.
Quote, chart or build on it, including commercially, with credit.
Suggested citation:
Bet Better (2026). State of the Vig 2026, Q3: bookmaker margins across 69.6 million markets.
https://betbetter.world/studies/state-of-the-vig-2026
Companion research: Bookmaker ratings by real cost ·
Do betting odds tell the truth? ·
The 5% price and the 10% hold ·
The daily Margin Index (CSV)
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