The most overrated and underrated teams of 2026
Before every game, the betting market says how much a team is expected to win
or lose by. Then the game is played. Do that all season, add up the difference, and you can
see which teams kept doing better than the market asked of them, and which
kept doing worse.
2026 season · finished games up to 2026-10-25 · updated every
few hours · free to reuse under
CC BY 4.0 with attribution
9
leagues with enough finished games
5+
finished games behind every team shown
+0.7
most underrated: Arizona Diamondbacks (runs per game)
-1.1
most overrated: Seattle Mariners (runs per game)
How to read the number
Say the market expected a team to win by 3 and they won by 5. That is +2 for
that game. Lose by 1 when they were expected to win by 3, and that is −4.
We do that for every finished game and take the average.
- A plus number = underrated. The market kept asking for less than the team
delivered.
- A minus number = overrated. The market kept expecting more than the team
delivered.
- It is not a win-loss record. A losing team can be underrated if it kept losing by less
than expected.
Baseball (MLB)
30 teams, 2426 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
runs per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | runs per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Arizona Diamondbacks |
79 |
+0.7 |
| 2 |
Detroit Tigers |
78 |
+0.7 |
| 3 |
Chicago White Sox |
87 |
+0.6 |
| 4 |
San Diego Padres |
86 |
+0.6 |
| 5 |
New York Mets |
78 |
+0.6 |
| 6 |
Washington Nationals |
77 |
+0.5 |
| 7 |
Chicago Cubs |
80 |
+0.5 |
| 8 |
Los Angeles Angels |
77 |
+0.4 |
| 9 |
San Francisco Giants |
79 |
+0.4 |
| 10 |
Kansas City Royals |
77 |
+0.3 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Arizona Diamondbacks to do one thing, and over
79 games they did +0.7
run per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | runs per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Seattle Mariners |
77 |
-1.1 |
| 2 |
Athletics |
78 |
-1.0 |
| 3 |
Los Angeles Dodgers |
86 |
-0.9 |
| 4 |
Philadelphia Phillies |
81 |
-0.8 |
| 5 |
Texas Rangers |
78 |
-0.6 |
| 6 |
Cincinnati Reds |
80 |
-0.5 |
| 7 |
Houston Astros |
78 |
-0.4 |
| 8 |
Toronto Blue Jays |
78 |
-0.3 |
| 9 |
Cleveland Guardians |
89 |
-0.2 |
| 10 |
New York Yankees |
83 |
-0.2 |
College football
129 teams, 889 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
points per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | points per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Oregon State Beavers |
7 |
+16.4 |
| 2 |
New Mexico Lobos |
6 |
+16.3 |
| 3 |
James Madison Dukes |
7 |
+14.4 |
| 4 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
7 |
+14.1 |
| 5 |
UCLA Bruins |
7 |
+13.4 |
| 6 |
Liberty Flames |
5 |
+12.6 |
| 7 |
Northwestern Wildcats |
7 |
+10.8 |
| 8 |
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
6 |
+9.9 |
| 9 |
Georgia State Panthers |
7 |
+8.6 |
| 10 |
North Texas Mean Green |
6 |
+8.6 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Oregon State Beavers to do one thing, and over
7 games they did +16.4
points per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | points per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Old Dominion Monarchs |
7 |
-13.9 |
| 2 |
Stanford Cardinal |
7 |
-9.9 |
| 3 |
California Golden Bears |
8 |
-9.4 |
| 4 |
San Diego State Aztecs |
8 |
-9.1 |
| 5 |
Washington Huskies |
7 |
-9.0 |
| 6 |
Sacramento State Hornets |
7 |
-8.3 |
| 7 |
UTEP Miners |
6 |
-8.1 |
| 8 |
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
7 |
-7.7 |
| 9 |
Vanderbilt Commodores |
8 |
-7.7 |
| 10 |
Texas Tech Red Raiders |
6 |
-7.5 |
Basketball (WNBA)
15 teams, 348 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
points per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | points per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Atlanta Dream |
29 |
+4.4 |
| 2 |
Washington Mystics |
25 |
+2.7 |
| 3 |
Portland Fire |
21 |
+2.7 |
| 4 |
Golden State Valkyries |
30 |
+1.5 |
| 5 |
Los Angeles Sparks |
22 |
+1.3 |
| 6 |
Dallas Wings |
23 |
+0.4 |
| 7 |
New York Liberty |
25 |
+0.3 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Atlanta Dream to do one thing, and over
29 games they did +4.4
points per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | points per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Toronto Tempo |
21 |
-5.7 |
| 2 |
Minnesota Lynx |
22 |
-4.1 |
| 3 |
Seattle Storm |
19 |
-2.7 |
| 4 |
Connecticut Sun |
21 |
-2.2 |
| 5 |
Chicago Sky |
21 |
-1.5 |
| 6 |
Phoenix Mercury |
19 |
-0.8 |
| 7 |
Las Vegas Aces |
26 |
+0.2 |
Football (MLS)
23 teams, 242 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
goals per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Charlotte FC |
8 |
+0.9 |
| 2 |
Nashville SC |
10 |
+0.9 |
| 3 |
Philadelphia Union |
11 |
+0.5 |
| 4 |
FC Dallas |
11 |
+0.5 |
| 5 |
Orlando City SC |
11 |
+0.5 |
| 6 |
Seattle Sounders FC |
11 |
+0.5 |
| 7 |
St. Louis CITY SC |
10 |
+0.4 |
| 8 |
Austin FC |
11 |
+0.3 |
| 9 |
New England Revolution |
10 |
+0.1 |
| 10 |
Toronto FC |
10 |
+0.0 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Charlotte FC to do one thing, and over
8 games they did +0.9
goal per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
D.C. United |
9 |
-1.4 |
| 2 |
San Jose Earthquakes |
11 |
-0.6 |
| 3 |
Sporting Kansas City |
10 |
-0.5 |
| 4 |
Inter Miami CF |
9 |
-0.4 |
| 5 |
FC Cincinnati |
11 |
-0.4 |
| 6 |
Portland Timbers |
12 |
-0.3 |
| 7 |
San Diego FC |
11 |
-0.3 |
| 8 |
Minnesota United FC |
12 |
-0.3 |
| 9 |
Atlanta United FC |
11 |
-0.2 |
| 10 |
Colorado Rapids |
10 |
-0.2 |
NFL
32 teams, 208 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
points per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | points per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
6 |
+5.4 |
| 2 |
Kansas City Chiefs |
5 |
+5.4 |
| 3 |
Minnesota Vikings |
6 |
+5.3 |
| 4 |
San Francisco 49ers |
7 |
+4.5 |
| 5 |
Cincinnati Bengals |
6 |
+4.1 |
| 6 |
New York Giants |
7 |
+3.7 |
| 7 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
7 |
+3.7 |
| 8 |
Chicago Bears |
7 |
+3.4 |
| 9 |
New England Patriots |
7 |
+2.6 |
| 10 |
Cleveland Browns |
7 |
+1.9 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Jacksonville Jaguars to do one thing, and over
6 games they did +5.4
points per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | points per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Los Angeles Chargers |
6 |
-8.7 |
| 2 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
6 |
-5.5 |
| 3 |
Arizona Cardinals |
7 |
-3.6 |
| 4 |
Houston Texans |
7 |
-3.6 |
| 5 |
Dallas Cowboys |
6 |
-3.2 |
| 6 |
Baltimore Ravens |
7 |
-3.0 |
| 7 |
Los Angeles Rams |
6 |
-2.8 |
| 8 |
Indianapolis Colts |
7 |
-2.4 |
| 9 |
New Orleans Saints |
7 |
-2.4 |
| 10 |
Washington Commanders |
6 |
-2.3 |
Football (Premier League)
18 teams, 128 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
goals per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Hull City |
8 |
+1.1 |
| 2 |
Leeds United |
7 |
+0.5 |
| 3 |
Brentford |
7 |
+0.5 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa |
7 |
+0.4 |
| 5 |
Arsenal |
7 |
+0.4 |
| 6 |
Coventry City |
7 |
+0.4 |
| 7 |
Ipswich Town |
8 |
+0.3 |
| 8 |
Manchester City |
7 |
+0.3 |
| 9 |
Everton |
7 |
+0.0 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Hull City to do one thing, and over
8 games they did +1.1
goals per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Chelsea |
6 |
-0.9 |
| 2 |
Manchester United |
7 |
-0.6 |
| 3 |
Liverpool |
6 |
-0.5 |
| 4 |
Crystal Palace |
7 |
-0.5 |
| 5 |
Newcastle United |
7 |
-0.4 |
| 6 |
Nottingham Forest |
8 |
-0.4 |
| 7 |
Tottenham Hotspur |
8 |
-0.4 |
| 8 |
Sunderland |
6 |
-0.3 |
| 9 |
Fulham |
8 |
-0.2 |
Football (Serie A)
18 teams, 128 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
goals per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
AS Roma |
6 |
+1.4 |
| 2 |
Lazio |
8 |
+1.3 |
| 3 |
Frosinone |
7 |
+1.2 |
| 4 |
Torino |
8 |
+0.5 |
| 5 |
AC Milan |
7 |
+0.5 |
| 6 |
Como |
8 |
+0.3 |
| 7 |
Monza |
7 |
+0.1 |
| 8 |
Napoli |
7 |
+0.1 |
| 9 |
Lecce |
8 |
+0.1 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
AS Roma to do one thing, and over
6 games they did +1.4
goals per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Fiorentina |
7 |
-1.4 |
| 2 |
Udinese |
7 |
-1.0 |
| 3 |
Venezia |
7 |
-1.0 |
| 4 |
Juventus |
7 |
-0.8 |
| 5 |
Genoa |
8 |
-0.7 |
| 6 |
Parma |
7 |
-0.4 |
| 7 |
Cagliari |
6 |
-0.3 |
| 8 |
Bologna |
6 |
-0.1 |
| 9 |
Sassuolo |
7 |
-0.1 |
Football (La Liga)
15 teams, 98 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
goals per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Atlético Madrid |
5 |
+0.6 |
| 2 |
Real Betis |
7 |
+0.6 |
| 3 |
Real Sociedad |
7 |
+0.3 |
| 4 |
Espanyol |
7 |
+0.3 |
| 5 |
Villarreal |
7 |
+0.2 |
| 6 |
Celta Vigo |
6 |
+0.1 |
| 7 |
Real Madrid |
9 |
+0.1 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Atlético Madrid to do one thing, and over
5 games they did +0.6
goal per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Málaga |
8 |
-0.6 |
| 2 |
Levante |
6 |
-0.5 |
| 3 |
Getafe |
6 |
-0.4 |
| 4 |
Valencia |
6 |
-0.3 |
| 5 |
Rayo Vallecano |
5 |
-0.3 |
| 6 |
Sevilla |
7 |
-0.2 |
| 7 |
Barcelona |
5 |
+0.0 |
Football (Ligue 1)
10 teams, 54 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
goals per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Marseille |
5 |
+0.8 |
| 2 |
Paris FC |
5 |
+0.6 |
| 3 |
Lille |
6 |
+0.3 |
| 4 |
Lorient |
6 |
+0.2 |
| 5 |
Nice |
6 |
+0.1 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Marseille to do one thing, and over
5 games they did +0.8
goal per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Angers |
5 |
-1.1 |
| 2 |
Troyes |
6 |
-0.9 |
| 3 |
Toulouse |
5 |
-0.5 |
| 4 |
AS Monaco |
5 |
-0.4 |
| 5 |
Strasbourg |
5 |
+0.0 |
What this is good for, and what it is not
This is a look back, not a tip. A team being underrated
all season does not mean the next game is priced wrong — the market reads these
tables too, and it moves. Treat it as a season story: who quietly did more than anyone
asked, and who kept coming up short.
How this was put together
- Games: finished 2026-season games only, full-time score.
- Expected margin: the closing handicap for that team, taken from the line
with the most bookmakers behind it. Licensed Australian and United States bookmakers only.
- Matching: a game counts when the team, the opponent and the date all
line up.
- Minimum: five matched games for a team, and eight such teams for a
league to be shown at all.
- Leagues not here yet simply do not have enough finished games with a
closing handicap on record. They appear as their seasons fill out.
Limits, said plainly. Our record of closing lines starts
partway through 2026, so a team's number covers the games we have, not necessarily their
whole season. Sports without a handicap market are not covered. Small game counts move a
lot — a team on five games is a hint, not a verdict.
Reusing this
Published under CC BY 4.0.
Quote it, chart it or build on it, including commercially, with credit.
Bet Better (2026). The most overrated and underrated teams of 2026.
https://betbetter.world/studies/overrated-underrated-teams
Companion research: Do betting odds tell the truth? ·
How lines move before kick-off ·
The daily Margin Index
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