The most overrated and underrated teams of 2026
Before every game, the betting market says how much a team is expected to win
or lose by. Then the game is played. Do that all season, add up the difference, and you can
see which teams kept doing better than the market asked of them, and which
kept doing worse.
2026 season · finished games up to 2026-10-05 · updated every
few hours · free to reuse under
CC BY 4.0 with attribution
7
leagues with enough finished games
5+
finished games behind every team shown
+0.8
most underrated: Chicago White Sox (runs per game)
-1.1
most overrated: Seattle Mariners (runs per game)
How to read the number
Say the market expected a team to win by 3 and they won by 5. That is +2 for
that game. Lose by 1 when they were expected to win by 3, and that is −4.
We do that for every finished game and take the average.
- A plus number = underrated. The market kept asking for less than the team
delivered.
- A minus number = overrated. The market kept expecting more than the team
delivered.
- It is not a win-loss record. A losing team can be underrated if it kept losing by less
than expected.
Baseball (MLB)
30 teams, 2384 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
runs per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | runs per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Chicago White Sox |
84 |
+0.8 |
| 2 |
Arizona Diamondbacks |
79 |
+0.8 |
| 3 |
Detroit Tigers |
78 |
+0.7 |
| 4 |
San Diego Padres |
84 |
+0.6 |
| 5 |
Washington Nationals |
77 |
+0.5 |
| 6 |
Chicago Cubs |
80 |
+0.5 |
| 7 |
New York Mets |
78 |
+0.5 |
| 8 |
Los Angeles Angels |
77 |
+0.4 |
| 9 |
San Francisco Giants |
79 |
+0.4 |
| 10 |
Kansas City Royals |
77 |
+0.3 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Chicago White Sox to do one thing, and over
84 games they did +0.8
run per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | runs per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Seattle Mariners |
77 |
-1.1 |
| 2 |
Athletics |
78 |
-1.0 |
| 3 |
Los Angeles Dodgers |
80 |
-0.8 |
| 4 |
Philadelphia Phillies |
81 |
-0.8 |
| 5 |
Texas Rangers |
78 |
-0.6 |
| 6 |
Cincinnati Reds |
80 |
-0.6 |
| 7 |
Houston Astros |
78 |
-0.4 |
| 8 |
Toronto Blue Jays |
78 |
-0.3 |
| 9 |
Cleveland Guardians |
80 |
-0.3 |
| 10 |
Atlanta Braves |
85 |
-0.1 |
Basketball (WNBA)
15 teams, 332 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
points per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | points per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Atlanta Dream |
23 |
+4.2 |
| 2 |
Washington Mystics |
25 |
+2.7 |
| 3 |
Portland Fire |
21 |
+2.7 |
| 4 |
Golden State Valkyries |
24 |
+2.2 |
| 5 |
Los Angeles Sparks |
22 |
+1.3 |
| 6 |
Las Vegas Aces |
24 |
+1.0 |
| 7 |
New York Liberty |
23 |
+0.6 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Atlanta Dream to do one thing, and over
23 games they did +4.2
points per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | points per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Toronto Tempo |
21 |
-5.7 |
| 2 |
Minnesota Lynx |
22 |
-4.1 |
| 3 |
Seattle Storm |
19 |
-2.7 |
| 4 |
Connecticut Sun |
21 |
-2.2 |
| 5 |
Chicago Sky |
21 |
-1.5 |
| 6 |
Phoenix Mercury |
19 |
-0.8 |
| 7 |
Indiana Fever |
24 |
+0.3 |
Football (MLS)
23 teams, 174 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
goals per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Philadelphia Union |
8 |
+1.3 |
| 2 |
Charlotte FC |
5 |
+1.1 |
| 3 |
Nashville SC |
7 |
+0.8 |
| 4 |
St. Louis CITY SC |
7 |
+0.6 |
| 5 |
FC Dallas |
8 |
+0.4 |
| 6 |
Austin FC |
9 |
+0.4 |
| 7 |
Orlando City SC |
8 |
+0.4 |
| 8 |
Seattle Sounders FC |
8 |
+0.3 |
| 9 |
LA Galaxy |
7 |
+0.3 |
| 10 |
New England Revolution |
7 |
+0.2 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Philadelphia Union to do one thing, and over
8 games they did +1.3
goals per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Inter Miami CF |
6 |
-1.5 |
| 2 |
D.C. United |
5 |
-1.2 |
| 3 |
FC Cincinnati |
7 |
-1.0 |
| 4 |
San Jose Earthquakes |
7 |
-0.8 |
| 5 |
Real Salt Lake |
8 |
-0.5 |
| 6 |
Minnesota United FC |
10 |
-0.5 |
| 7 |
San Diego FC |
9 |
-0.3 |
| 8 |
Portland Timbers |
8 |
-0.3 |
| 9 |
Colorado Rapids |
7 |
-0.2 |
| 10 |
New York City FC |
9 |
-0.1 |
College football
21 teams, 105 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
points per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | points per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Alabama Crimson Tide |
5 |
+14.2 |
| 2 |
Wake Forest Demon Deacons |
5 |
+10.9 |
| 3 |
Miami Hurricanes |
5 |
+7.8 |
| 4 |
Georgia Bulldogs |
5 |
+7.6 |
| 5 |
Pittsburgh Panthers |
5 |
+7.5 |
| 6 |
Iowa State Cyclones |
5 |
+5.5 |
| 7 |
Iowa Hawkeyes |
5 |
+3.7 |
| 8 |
Tennessee Volunteers |
5 |
+2.0 |
| 9 |
Colorado State Rams |
5 |
+1.9 |
| 10 |
Ohio State Buckeyes |
5 |
+1.6 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Alabama Crimson Tide to do one thing, and over
5 games they did +14.2
points per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | points per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Clemson Tigers |
5 |
-6.6 |
| 2 |
Michigan Wolverines |
5 |
-6.3 |
| 3 |
SMU Mustangs |
5 |
-5.3 |
| 4 |
Indiana Hoosiers |
5 |
-4.1 |
| 5 |
Penn State Nittany Lions |
5 |
-4.0 |
| 6 |
Texas A&M Aggies |
5 |
-1.8 |
| 7 |
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers |
5 |
-1.2 |
| 8 |
Louisville Cardinals |
5 |
-1.0 |
| 9 |
Kent State Golden Flashes |
5 |
-0.7 |
| 10 |
UTSA Roadrunners |
5 |
+0.6 |
Football (Serie A)
10 teams, 50 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
goals per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Frosinone |
5 |
+1.7 |
| 2 |
Lazio |
5 |
+1.0 |
| 3 |
AC Milan |
5 |
+0.5 |
| 4 |
Parma |
5 |
+0.1 |
| 5 |
Torino |
5 |
+0.0 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Frosinone to do one thing, and over
5 games they did +1.7
goals per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Venezia |
5 |
-1.6 |
| 2 |
Fiorentina |
5 |
-1.3 |
| 3 |
Genoa |
5 |
-1.2 |
| 4 |
Lecce |
5 |
-0.2 |
| 5 |
Como |
5 |
-0.2 |
Football (La Liga)
8 teams, 41 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
goals per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Real Betis |
5 |
+1.1 |
| 2 |
Espanyol |
5 |
+0.4 |
| 3 |
Villarreal |
5 |
+0.0 |
| 4 |
Real Sociedad |
5 |
-0.1 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Real Betis to do one thing, and over
5 games they did +1.1
goals per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Málaga |
5 |
-0.6 |
| 2 |
Real Madrid |
6 |
-0.3 |
| 3 |
Valencia |
5 |
-0.2 |
| 4 |
Sevilla |
5 |
-0.1 |
Football (Premier League)
8 teams, 40 team-games with a closing line. Numbers are
goals per game.
Most underrated — they delivered more than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Hull City |
5 |
+1.5 |
| 2 |
Nottingham Forest |
5 |
-0.1 |
| 3 |
Ipswich Town |
5 |
-0.1 |
| 4 |
Fulham |
5 |
-0.2 |
Read the top line like this: the betting market expected
Hull City to do one thing, and over
5 games they did +1.5
goals per game
better than that.
Most overrated — they delivered less than the market expected
| # | Team | Games | goals per game vs expected |
|---|
| 1 |
Tottenham Hotspur |
5 |
-1.4 |
| 2 |
Manchester United |
5 |
-0.7 |
| 3 |
Crystal Palace |
5 |
-0.7 |
| 4 |
Sunderland |
5 |
-0.3 |
What this is good for, and what it is not
This is a look back, not a tip. A team being underrated
all season does not mean the next game is priced wrong — the market reads these
tables too, and it moves. Treat it as a season story: who quietly did more than anyone
asked, and who kept coming up short.
How this was put together
- Games: finished 2026-season games only, full-time score.
- Expected margin: the closing handicap for that team, taken from the line
with the most bookmakers behind it. Licensed Australian and United States bookmakers only.
- Matching: a game counts when the team, the opponent and the date all
line up.
- Minimum: five matched games for a team, and eight such teams for a
league to be shown at all.
- Leagues not here yet simply do not have enough finished games with a
closing handicap on record. They appear as their seasons fill out.
Limits, said plainly. Our record of closing lines starts
partway through 2026, so a team's number covers the games we have, not necessarily their
whole season. Sports without a handicap market are not covered. Small game counts move a
lot — a team on five games is a hint, not a verdict.
Reusing this
Published under CC BY 4.0.
Quote it, chart it or build on it, including commercially, with credit.
Bet Better (2026). The most overrated and underrated teams of 2026.
https://betbetter.world/studies/overrated-underrated-teams
Companion research: Do betting odds tell the truth? ·
How lines move before kick-off ·
The daily Margin Index
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