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Model picks & player props
Soccer
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 7:30 PM ET
Toronto FC
5-9-7 · 1-3-6 awayWLLLW
VS
New York Red Bulls
6-3-11 · 2-2-5 at homeLWWLW

Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction & Picks · Sat 17 Oct

Our model graded 4 markets for Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls and backs Draw hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $410.

4
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Draw
Draw Head to Head (3-Way)
You bet$10 If it wins$41.00Best price+310
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win23.1%
The price says24.5%

The model graded 4 markets for Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $410 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 17 Oct 2026, 7:30 PM ET.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Head to Head (3-Way) Draw Long-shot23% chance +310
Moneyline Members only Long-shot23% chance Members
Head to Head (3-Way) Members only Lean44% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every Soccer game on today's board →
Toronto FC are the model's favourite to beat New York Red Bulls, with a 53% chance to win. Kick-off Sat 17 Oct, 7:30 PM ET. Best bet: Draw at +310.
How they've been scoring this season
Toronto FCNew York Red Bulls
Won-drawn-lost5-9-76-3-11
Goals scored per game1.51.2
Goals allowed per game1.82.0
On the road / at home1-3-6 away2-2-5 at home
Last 5 gamesWLLLWLWWLW
Their games average 3.2 total goals this season.
From the 21 Toronto FC and 20 New York Red Bulls games on our books this season.
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How the price moved

When prices opened: New York Red Bulls about 4 in 10 to win. Now: about 4 in 10. About where it opened.

Best price and how much the bookies keep

Who wins
ResultMarket's chanceFair priceBest price
New York Red Bullsabout 4 in 10$2.28 (+128)$2.20 (+120)
Drawabout 2 in 10$4.12 (+312)$4.10 (+310)
Toronto FCabout 3 in 10$3.14 (+214)$3.10 (+210)

On this match the bookies keep about $8.20 of every $100 bet on who wins, going by the 38 books we check.

All Soccer odds this week →

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Head to Head (3-Way)
Draw
+310
+ 3 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
DrawHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DrawMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York Red BullsHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York Red BullsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Over on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Over
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on Under
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Toronto FC

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

New York Red Bulls

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

1 market live
MoneylineToronto FC @ New York Red Bulls+110

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC moneyline; the model reads New York Red Bulls's win chance at 47% for this fixture.

Toronto FC @ New York Red Bulls — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for Toronto FC at New York Red Bulls — 4 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

4
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls — recent results

New York Red Bulls have won 0 of their last 0 games; Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 5.

Toronto FC — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1MTLHome
L0–2NSHAway
L1–3STLAway
L0–3ORLAway
W2–1NSHHome

Toronto FC @ New York Red Bulls — where the money went

Since betting opened on Toronto FC at New York Red Bulls, the market has moved away from Over across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Total Points — Over 3.5▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Toronto FC▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 3.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — New York Red Bulls -1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — New York Red Bulls▲ Money came for this
Spread — New York Red Bulls -1▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Toronto FC 1.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Toronto FC 0▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls in the Soccer. The next scheduled game is Saturday 17 October 2026. The model has generated 4 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

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