Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Fernando Calero is Over 0.5 on Shots on Target.
On Shots on Target, our numbers say this bet wins about 20 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 20%, implied 9%, edge +15.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Sep 17, 5:37AM UTC
Soccer

Fernando Calero

Espanyol

+15.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Shots on Target Over 0.5 +1000 (11.00) · $100→$1,100
+15.8% Edge
Villarreal @ Málaga
Thu 17 Sep, 7:30PM
The recordWhen our formula calls soccer draw no bet calls: 75 of 158 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
25 in 100
Predicted
0.1 Shots on Target
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 24.9% · the book's price implies 9.1% · gap +15.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots on Target24.9%20.3%9.1%4.93+15.8%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Fernando Calero (Espanyol) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+1000)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Villarreal heads to Málaga, all eyes will be on Fernando Calero, especially if you're looking for a cheeky player prop. While his recent form shows he hasn't been firing on target away, let's not overlook the potential for a shift in fortunes here. Villarreal’s attacking style often leaves room for defenders to sneak in a shot or two. With Málaga’s defense under pressure, Calero might find those rare opportunities to push forward. He averages 0.6 shots per away game, hinting at possibilities that could easily translate into a shot on target. The context of this match suggests a more aggressive approach could be on the cards for the visitors, and with a 15.8% edge in our model, we’re banking on him surpassing that elusive shot on target line. Sometimes, it just takes the right moment, and this match might just be it for Calero.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Fernando Calero's lines for Thu 17 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Shots on Target 0.5

Fernando Calero's shots on target line is 0.5.

Fernando Calero — 2023 season

Fernando Calero scored 0 goals with 1 assist in 27 La Liga appearances for Espanyol in the 2023 season, from 7 shots (2 on target) and an expected-goals total of 0.7.

0
Goals
1
Assists
0.7
xG
7
Shots
2
On target
4
Key passes
27
Apps
1611
Minutes
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Fernando Calero (Espanyol) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Fernando Calero is Over 0.5 on Shots on Target. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.8% on this pick. Their next game is Villarreal vs Málaga on Thursday 17 September. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.