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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Marin Pongracic is Over 0.5 on Shots on Target.
On Shots on Target, our numbers say this bet wins about 17 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 17%, the price says 10%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 11:01AM UTC
Soccer

Marin Pongracic

Borussia Dortmund

Value call

Marin Pongracic (Borussia Dortmund) has one live pick today: Shots on Target Over 0.5 that pays $1,000 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Shots on Target Over 0.5 +900 (10.00) · $100→$1,000
Value call
Fiorentina @ Venezia
Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venice, Veneto · Outdoor
Fri 11 Sep, 6:45PM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
17 in 100
Predicted
0.0 Shots on Target
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 16.8% · before adjusting for past results 20.0% · the book's price implies 10.0% · gap +6.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots on Target20.0%16.8%10.0%5.95+10.0%

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AI Analysis

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Marin Pongracic (Fiorentina) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+900)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Fiorentina gears up to face Venezia, all eyes should be on Marin Pongracic for an intriguing player prop bet. While his recent numbers might raise eyebrows—averaging just 0.2 shots overall and a complete blank away—this matchup presents a golden opportunity for a breakout. Pongracic’s role in the squad suggests he’s poised to become more involved, particularly against a Venezia defense that struggles to contain attacking threats. Given that the hit rate for him to land even a single shot on target is sneakily undervalued at 10%, it feels like a classic case of “don’t judge a book by its cover.” With Fiorentina likely to dominate possession and create chances, it’s reasonable to expect Pongracic to find himself in positions where a shot on goal is not just possible, but likely. This could be the moment he steps up, making the Over 0.5 shots on target a tantalizing bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Marin Pongracic — 2024 season

Marin Pongracic scored 0 goals with 0 assists in 5 Serie A appearances for Lecce in the 2024 season, from 1 shots (0 on target) and an expected-goals total of 0.0.

0
Goals
0
Assists
0.0
xG
1
Shots
0
On target
2
Key passes
5
Apps
450
Minutes
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Sep 26 Fiorentina @ Venezia Shots on Target Pending

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About This Player

Marin Pongracic (Borussia Dortmund) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marin Pongracic is Over 0.5 on Shots on Target. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +10.0% on this pick. Their next game is Fiorentina vs Venezia on Friday 11 September at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Venice. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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