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Soccer

Marco Friedl

Werder Bremen

Value call

Marco Friedl (Werder Bremen) has one live pick today: over 0.5 shots that pays $320 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
38 in 100
Predicted
0.3 shots
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 38.0% · before adjusting for past results 42.8% · the book's price implies 31.3% · gap +6.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Werder Bremen @ Borussia Dortmund
Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, North Rhine-Westphalia · Outdoor
Fri 9 Oct, 8:30 PM CEST
Marco Friedl
over 0.5 shots
Shots Over 0.5 +220 (3.20) · $100→$320
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 38 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$32.00 Odds+220
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Marco Friedl is Over 0.5 on Shots.
On Shots, our numbers say this bet wins about 38 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 38%, the price says 31%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current Soccer schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 9:37PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots42.8%38.0%31.3%2.63+11.6%

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AI Analysis

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Marco Friedl (Werder Bremen) Over 0.5 Shots (+220)

Odds correct at time of publishing

As we dive into Friday's clash between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen, Marco Friedl emerges as an intriguing player to watch, especially in the shots market. While he hasn't been prolific in front of goal, averaging just 0.2 shots away this season, there’s a compelling narrative here. Dortmund tends to dominate possession, which could push Friedl further up the pitch, giving him more opportunities to unleash a shot or two. Moreover, the model's prediction suggests a slight edge for him to hit the over on 0.5 shots, especially considering he’s shown flashes of attacking intent in recent matchups. With Dortmund's aggressive style, Friedl could very well find himself in a position to capitalize on a loose ball or a set piece. Given the odds on this prop, it’s worth considering that a defensive player like Friedl might just surprise us if he finds the right moment to break forward.

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Pick History & Track Record

Marco Friedl — 2024 season

Marco Friedl scored 0 goals with 0 assists in 4 Bundesliga appearances for Werder Bremen in the 2024 season, from 1 shots (0 on target) and an expected-goals total of 0.0.

0
Goals
0
Assists
0.0
xG
1
Shots
0
On target
0
Key passes
4
Apps
315
Minutes
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Oct 26 Werder Bremen @ Borussia Dortmund Shots — — — Pending
09 Oct 26 Werder Bremen @ Borussia Dortmund Shots — — — Pending

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About This Player

Marco Friedl (Werder Bremen) is tracked by the Bet Better model for Soccer player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marco Friedl is Over 0.5 on Shots. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.6% on this pick. Their next game is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund on Friday 9 October at Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your Soccer betting strategy.

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