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Model picks & player props
Soccer
Sat 14 Nov 2026, 8:30 PM Brazil time
Vasco da Gama
VS
Chapecoense

Vasco da Gama vs Chapecoense Prediction & Picks · Sat 14 Nov

Our model graded 10 markets for Vasco da Gama vs Chapecoense and backs Chapecoense hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $450.

10
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Chapecoense
to win, money back on a draw
Chapecoense Draw No Bet
You bet$10 If it wins$45.00Best price+350
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win25.6%
The price says17.0%

The model graded 10 markets for Vasco da Gama vs Chapecoense (Soccer) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $450 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 14 Nov 2026, 8:30 PM Brazil time.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Draw No Bet Chapecoense Long-shot26% chance +350
Head to Head (3-Way) Members only Long-shot13% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Long-shot13% chance Members
Both Teams to Score Members only Lean48% chance Members
Spread Members only Lean53% chance Members
Total Goals Members only High91% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Vasco da Gama are the model's favourite to beat Chapecoense, with a 75% chance to win. Kick-off Sat 14 Nov, 8:30 PM Brazil time. Best bet: Chapecoense at +350.
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How the price moved

When prices opened: Vasco da Gama about 6 in 10 to win. Now: about 7 in 10. Moved toward Vasco da Gama since prices opened (from about 6 in 10 to about 7 in 10).

Best price and how much the bookies keep

Who wins
ResultMarket's chanceFair priceBest price
Chapecoenseabout 1 in 7$6.96$6.50
Drawabout 2 in 10$5.03$5.00
Vasco da Gamaabout 7 in 10$1.52$1.44

On this match the bookies keep about $7.80 of every $100 bet on who wins, going by the 47 books we check.

All Soccer odds this week →

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Draw No Bet
Chapecoense
+ 9 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
ChapecoenseDraw No BetThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
ChapecoenseHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
ChapecoenseMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DrawHead to Head (3-Way)The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
DrawMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
NoBoth Teams to ScoreThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
ChapecoenseSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GoalsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from Chapecoense on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward Chapecoense
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Vasco da Gama

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Chapecoense

Player availability is not tracked for Soccer on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Vasco da Gama vs Chapecoense: Soccer weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Soccer on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Same game parlay

Written 13 Nov

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Prediction & Same Game Parlay picks

On Saturday 14 November 2026, Chapecoense play Vasco da Gama in soccer. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Chapecoense Draw No Bet, priced at +350 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama: Chapecoense Draw No Bet (+350)

Odds correct at time of publishing

When Chapecoense takes on Vasco da Gama this Saturday, the home advantage could be pivotal. Despite a shaky recent record, with only one win in their last five, Chapecoense has shown glimpses of resilience, particularly at home, where they've managed to create around 12.8 shots per game and score an average of 1.2 goals. In contrast, Vasco's away form has been decent, but their last encounter with Chapecoense ended in disappointment. What stands out here is Chapecoense's ability to defend at home, limiting their opponents to just 1.8 goals on average over their last five home games. With Vasco struggling to convert chances away, betting on Chapecoense in the Draw No Bet market feels prudent-they can either secure a win or at least ensure we don't lose our stake. Given the stakes, it's a calculated risk that could pay off nicely.

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama: Both Teams To Score: No (+104)

Odds correct at time of publishing

As Chapecoense prepares to host Vasco da Gama, the evidence leans heavily toward a low-scoring affair. Chapecoense's recent form has been disheartening; they've averaged just 0.8 goals per match over their last five outings and struggled to convert chances, evident in their meager expected goals (xG) tally. Defensively, however, they've conceded an average of 2.2 goals, highlighting a vulnerability that Vasco could exploit. On the other hand, while Vasco has been slightly more productive, their away matches have seen mixed results, with an average of 1.4 goals scored. Chapecoense's home record has also been shaky, and with their defense allowing 1.8 goals per game on home turf, it's a recipe for a tightly contested match. With both teams finding the back of the net a challenge lately, betting "No" on both to score looks particularly appealing. This matchup might just be a goal-shy clash.

That is how our model reads Chapecoense v Vasco da Gama. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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Betting angles

5 markets live
MoneylineVasco da Gama @ Chapecoense+550

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama moneyline; the model reads Chapecoense's win chance at 25% for this fixture.

Draw No BetVasco da Gama @ Chapecoense+350

Chapecoense to win with the stake returned on a draw; the model prices this at 31%.

Both Teams to ScoreVasco da Gama @ Chapecoense+104
56%both teams score %

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama both-teams-to-score angle; our model makes both teams scoring 56% here.

Total GoalsVasco da Gama @ ChapecoenseUnder +5.5 -2500
94%model over %

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama total-goals angle; the model prices Under at 94% here.

SpreadVasco da Gama @ ChapecoenseChapecoense +1.25 -115
58%model cover %

Chapecoense on the +1.25 goal handicap; the model prices this cover at 58%.

Vasco da Gama @ Chapecoense — what the model found

Our model graded 10 betting markets for Vasco da Gama at Chapecoense — 10 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

10
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 10 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 9 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Vasco da Gama @ Chapecoense — where the money went

Since betting opened on Vasco da Gama at Chapecoense, the market has moved away from Chapecoense across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Chapecoense▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Chapecoense 1▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Draw▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Vasco da Gama -1▲ Money came for this
Spread — Vasco da Gama -1.5▲ Money came for this
Moneyline — Vasco da Gama▲ Money came for this
Spread — Chapecoense 1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Total Points — Under 2.5▼ Money drifted off this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Vasco da Gama @ Chapecoense — model preview

Chapecoense v Vasco da Gama, 14 November 2026. Top of the list: Chapecoense Draw No Bet. Our model likes 2 bets in this game. Here is why, in plain English.

On Saturday 14 November 2026, Chapecoense play Vasco da Gama in soccer. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Chapecoense Draw No Bet, priced at +350 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama: Chapecoense Draw No Bet (+350)

Odds correct at time of publishing

When Chapecoense takes on Vasco da Gama this Saturday, the home advantage could be pivotal. Despite a shaky recent record, with only one win in their last five, Chapecoense has shown glimpses of resilience, particularly at home, where they've managed to create around 12.8 shots per game and score an average of 1.2 goals. In contrast, Vasco's away form has been decent, but their last encounter with Chapecoense ended in disappointment. What stands out here is Chapecoense's ability to defend at home, limiting their opponents to just 1.8 goals on average over their last five home games. With Vasco struggling to convert chances away, betting on Chapecoense in the Draw No Bet market feels prudent-they can either secure a win or at least ensure we don't lose our stake. Given the stakes, it's a calculated risk that could pay off nicely.

🔒 The other 1 write-up for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Vasco da Gama vs Chapecoense in the Soccer. The next scheduled game is Saturday 14 November 2026. The model has generated 10 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Soccer betting strategy for this matchup.

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