On Sunday 23 August 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Atlanta Dream in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 195.5 Total Points, priced at -769 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Under 195.5 Total Points (-769)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As the Phoenix Mercury host the Atlanta Dream at PHX Arena, fans can expect a clash that leans toward defensive strategy rather than an offensive shootout. Both teams have shown a tendency to struggle in the scoring department, particularly when faced with tough defenses. The Dream, known for their disciplined defensive approach, will likely make it challenging for Phoenix to find their rhythm, especially with the Mercury still figuring out their lineup dynamics. Additionally, the pace of this game is expected to be slower, which naturally limits scoring opportunities. With our model projecting the total to be around 168.5 points, backing the 'Under 195.5' seems not just prudent but almost inevitable. Expect a contest where every possession counts, making points hard to come by in the desert air. So, gear up for a gritty affair, where defense reigns supreme! It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Phoenix Mercury +20.5 on the Line (-769)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
As the Phoenix Mercury prepare to host the Atlanta Dream at PHX Arena, the stage is set for a tantalizing clash. The Mercury, with their potent offensive arsenal, thrive in high-tempo games, while the Dream have struggled to keep pace as of late. This matchup could see Phoenix pushing the tempo, capitalizing on their home court advantage to exploit Atlanta's defensive vulnerabilities. Our projections suggest a narrow margin, but taking the Mercury at an alternate spread of 20.5 offers a tantalizing opportunity. With the home crowd behind them and their scoring potential peaking, it's reasonable to expect the Mercury to stretch the lead, especially if they can establish an early rhythm. If they find their groove, this game could turn into a showcase of offensive firepower. The combination of Phoenix's urgency and Atlanta's defensive lapses could make this spread a compelling play. It was priced at -769 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.30 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing
Phoenix Mercury play Atlanta Dream in the WNBA on Sunday 23 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Jordin Canada Over 8.5 Points. That is a player points bet. It was priced at -250 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14 if it lands. It is on at PHX Arena in Phoenix. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Alyssa Thomas Over 28.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-204)
Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing
Phoenix Mercury play Atlanta Dream in the WNBA on Sunday 23 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Alyssa Thomas Over 28.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists. That is a player points, rebounds and assists combined bet. It was priced at -204 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.90 if it lands. It is on at PHX Arena in Phoenix. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kahleah Copper Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-213)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Phoenix Mercury play Atlanta Dream in the WNBA on Sunday 23 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kahleah Copper Under 2.5 Three-Pointers Made. That is a player three-pointers made bet. It was priced at -213 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.70 if it lands. It is on at PHX Arena in Phoenix. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v Atlanta Dream. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
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