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Model picks & player props
Portland Fire
VS
Phoenix Mercury

Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 15, 10:33AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

WNBA
PHX Arena, Phoenix
Indoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 11:00PM
20
Game markets graded
27
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Portland Fire 5 (Alt Spread)
The model graded 47 markets for Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury (WNBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $200 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 66.9%, fair odds 2.09, book price +100, model edge +16.9%. Tip-off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 11:00PM at PHX Arena.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best WNBA market — 482 of 629 right (wnba spread calls)
This bet type · last timeAug 14
Los Angeles Sparks 7
Los Angeles Sparks @ New York Liberty
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $220
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alt Spread
Portland Fire
+10.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Portland Firealternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland Firealternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland Firealternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland Firealternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland Firealternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland Firealternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland Firealternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland Firealternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland Firealternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland Firealternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland Firealternate_spreadsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market sharpened toward Portland Fire on this game.

Line movement

▲ moved toward Portland Fire
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Fanatics
on Portland Fire
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Portland Fire

  • Luisa Geiselsoder COut
  • Sarah Ashlee Barker GOut
  • Sania Feagin FOut

Phoenix Mercury

  • Kelsey Plum GOut
  • Kara Dunn GOut
  • Jovana Nogic GOut
Availability updated Aug 14, 7:35PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 6 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability6 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Kahleah Copper player_points
DeWanna Bonner player_points_rebounds_assists
Kahleah Copper player_points_rebounds
Kahleah Copper player_assists
Kahleah Copper player_points_assists

+ 27 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Portland Fire @ Phoenix Mercury — what the model found

Our model graded 47 betting markets for Portland Fire at Phoenix Mercury — 20 on the game itself and 27 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
27
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 47 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 46 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury — recent results

Phoenix Mercury have won 2 of their last 5 games; Portland Fire have won 3 of their last 5.

Phoenix Mercury — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W94–87LAAway
L75–95WSHAway
L72–75CONAway
L82–96ATLAway
W106–101CHIAway
Portland Fire — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W84–82SEAAway
L81–85MINHome
W100–93SEAHome
W97–83TORHome
L101–106LAHome

Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Phoenix Mercury won 1, Portland Fire won 0.

DatePhoenix MercuryPortland FireWinner
Jun 67872Phoenix Mercury

Who’s out or in doubt

6 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Phoenix Mercury
PlayerStatus
Kelsey Plum GOUT
Kara Dunn GOUT
Jovana Nogic GOUT
Portland Fire
PlayerStatus
Luisa Geiselsoder COUT
Sarah Ashlee Barker GOUT
Sania Feagin FOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Portland Fire @ Phoenix Mercury — where the money went

Since betting opened on Portland Fire at Phoenix Mercury, the market has moved toward Portland Fire across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Moneyline — Portland Fire▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Under 176.5▲ Money came for this
Total Points — Over 176.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Portland Fire 5.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Phoenix Mercury -5.5▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Phoenix Mercury▼ Money drifted off this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Portland Fire @ Phoenix Mercury — model preview

Phoenix Mercury v Portland Fire, 17 August 2026. Top of the list: Portland Fire +17.5 on the Line. Our model likes 5 bets in this game.

On Monday 17 August 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Portland Fire in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Portland Fire +17.5 on the Line, priced at -714 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Portland Fire +17.5 on the Line (-714)

Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing

Phoenix Mercury play Portland Fire in the WNBA on Monday 17 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Portland Fire +17.5 on the Line. That is a points handicap bet. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. It was priced at -714 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.40 if it lands. It is on at PHX Arena in Phoenix. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA. You may also see this matchup written as Fire vs Mercury, or as Mercury vs Fire. The next scheduled game is Sunday 16 August 2026 at PHX Arena. The model has generated 20 game picks and 27 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your WNBA betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 1 meeting
Phoenix Mercury 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Jun 2026Phoenix Mercury @ Portland Fire72–78Phoenix Mercury
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