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Model picks & player props
Portland Fire
VS
Phoenix Mercury

Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 10, 6:38AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

WNBA
PHX Arena, Phoenix
Indoor
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 11:00PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
100.0%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Portland Fire 1.5 Alt Spread +150

The model graded 70 markets for Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury (WNBA) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $250 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 100.0% across 77 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 16 Aug 2026, 11:00PM at PHX Arena.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win56.6%
The price says37.8%
Best price+150
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Alt Spread Portland Fire 1.5 Lean57% chance +150
Alt Spread Lean60% chance
Spread High68% chance
Alt Total Points Lean57% chance
Alt Total Points Lean55% chance
Alt Spread High75% chance
Alt Spread High78% chance
Alt Total Points High70% chance
Alt Total Points Lean56% chance
Points × 8 props Highup to 81%
3-Pointers × 4 props Highup to 79%
Pts+Reb+Ast × 5 props Highup to 75%
Pts+Reb+Ast (Alt) × 1 prop Highup to 79%
Pts+Reb × 6 props Highup to 71%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Portland Fire and Phoenix Mercury last met on Sun 16 Aug 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every WNBA game priced right now.

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This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Portland Fire 1.5 · $100 returned $248

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best WNBA market — 1,718 of 2,295 right (wnba totals unders)
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Alt Spread
Portland Fire
+9.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 56,727+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Portland FireAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland FireAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland FireSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland FireAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland FireAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland FireAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Portland FireAlt SpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderAlt Total PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Portland Fire

  • Frieda Buhner FOut
  • Carla Leite GOut
  • Luisa Geiselsoder COut
  • Sarah Ashlee Barker GOut
  • Sania Feagin FOut

Phoenix Mercury

  • Kelsey Plum GOut
  • Kahleah Copper GOut
  • Valeriane Ayayi FOut
  • Kyara Linskens COut
  • Jovana Nogic GOut
Availability updated Sep 7, 10:33PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 10 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability10 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Nyadiew Puoch POR Points
Noemie Brochant PHX 3-Pointers
Sami Whitcomb PHX 3-Pointers
Noemie Brochant PHX Points
Sami Whitcomb PHX Points

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Portland Fire @ Phoenix Mercury — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Portland Fire at Phoenix Mercury — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury — recent results

Phoenix Mercury have won 1 of their last 5 games; Portland Fire have won 1 of their last 5.

Phoenix Mercury — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W101–69TORHome
L73–80WSHHome
L84–94WSHHome
L89–99ATLHome
L85–88PORHome
Portland Fire — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L69–86GSHome
W101–83ATLAway
L78–96DALAway
L100–105WSHHome
L79–82TORAway

Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Phoenix Mercury won 1, Portland Fire won 1.

DatePhoenix MercuryPortland FireWinner
Aug 168588Portland Fire
Jun 67872Phoenix Mercury

Who’s out or in doubt

10 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Phoenix Mercury
PlayerStatus
Kelsey Plum GOUT
Kahleah Copper GOUT
Valeriane Ayayi FOUT
Kyara Linskens COUT
Jovana Nogic GOUT
Portland Fire
PlayerStatus
Frieda Buhner FOUT
Carla Leite GOUT
Luisa Geiselsoder COUT
Sarah Ashlee Barker GOUT
Sania Feagin FOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Portland Fire @ Phoenix Mercury — model preview

Phoenix Mercury v Portland Fire, 17 August 2026. Top of the list: Portland Fire +16.5 on the Line. Our model likes 5 bets in this game.

On Monday 17 August 2026, Phoenix Mercury play Portland Fire in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Portland Fire +16.5 on the Line, priced at -500 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Portland Fire +16.5 on the Line (-500)

Odds available at BetRivers at time of publishing

As the Phoenix Mercury prepare to host the Portland Fire at PHX Arena, this matchup presents a fascinating dynamic. The Mercury, while formidable at home, are facing a Fire squad that has shown resilience and depth this season. The projected final margin of just -0.7 points indicates a tighter contest than many might expect, suggesting that the Fire can keep things competitive. Given the pace of play, both teams will look to push the tempo, creating opportunities for fast-break points. This style favors Portland's athleticism, allowing them to capitalize on any defensive lapses. Additionally, the motivation of an underdog aiming to make a statement can't be overlooked. Betting on Portland to cover a 16.5-point spread reflects confidence in their ability to stay within striking distance, making this a compelling play in what could be a nail-biter of a game. It was priced at -500 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
77
Total Picks
100.0%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
16 Aug 26 Alt Total Points Under 175 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Spread Portland Fire +9.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Total Points Under 181.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Spread Portland Fire +12 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Spread Portland Fire +8 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Total Points Under 174.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Total Points Under 188.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Spread Portland Fire +2.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Total Points Under 177 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Total Points Under 183 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Spread Portland Fire +11 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Total Points Under 190.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Spread Portland Fire +5.5 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Total Points Under 181 ✓ HIT
16 Aug 26 Alt Total Points Under 180 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA. You may also see this matchup written as Fire vs Mercury, or as Mercury vs Fire. The most recent game between them was Sunday 16 August 2026 at PHX Arena. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 100.0% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your WNBA betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Even at 1–1 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
16 Aug 2026Portland Fire @ Phoenix Mercury85–88Portland Fire
6 Jun 2026Phoenix Mercury @ Portland Fire72–78Phoenix Mercury
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