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The latest Bet Better model pick for Erik Karlsson is Under 2.5 on Shots on Goal.
On Shots on Goal, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 58%, the price says 55%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NHL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:03AM UTC
NHL

Erik Karlsson

Pittsburgh Penguins

Value call

Erik Karlsson (Pittsburgh Penguins) has one live pick today: Shots on Goal Under 2.5 that pays $183 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Shots on Goal Under 2.5 -120 (1.83) · $100→$183
Value call
Winnipeg Jets @ Pittsburgh Penguins
PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, FUT · Indoor
Mon 5 Oct, 11:30PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
58 in 100
Predicted
2.1 Shots on Goal
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 58.0% · the book's price implies 54.6% · gap +3.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Shots on Goal58.0%—54.6%1.72+3.4%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Pittsburgh Penguins vs Winnipeg Jets: Erik Karlsson Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-120)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Erik Karlsson faces a tough challenge against the Winnipeg Jets, who have been strong defensively despite their recent struggles. With only two wins in their last ten games, they're likely to focus on shutting down key players, making it harder for Karlsson to get his shots off. Meanwhile, the Penguins are finding ways to win, but their scoring chances can be limited when the Jets tighten up. Betting on Karlsson to have under 2.5 shots on goal feels reasonable here. The matchup shows that both teams are working hard, but the Jets' recent form suggests they'll make it tough for him to find those shooting opportunities. Just remember, you never know how a game will unfold, and this is a close call.

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Pick History & Track Record

Erik Karlsson's lines for Mon 5 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Shots on Goal 2.5

Erik Karlsson's shots on goal line is 2.5.

Recent game log

Erik Karlsson has 3 goals and 9 assists (12 points) across his last 10 NHL games.

DateOppGAPSOGHitsTOI
3 Oct 26vs MTL0220019:38
30 Sep 26@ PHI0113019:59
12 Apr 26@ WSH0000019:56
9 Apr 26@ NJD1122022:30
5 Apr 26vs FLA0002021:27
4 Apr 26vs FLA1342020:30
2 Apr 26@ TBL0003023:48
31 Mar 26vs DET0004122:48
30 Mar 26@ NYI0002019:41
28 Mar 26vs DAL1231124:47
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Erik Karlsson (Pittsburgh Penguins) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NHL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Erik Karlsson is Under 2.5 on Shots on Goal. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.4% on this pick. Their next game is Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday 5 October at PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NHL betting strategy.

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