Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tua Tagovailoa is Over 0.5 on Rushing Yards.
On the Rushing Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 56%, for a model edge of +18.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
NFL

Tua Tagovailoa

MIA

+18.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Rushing Yards Over 0.5 -128 (1.78)
+18.5% Edge
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Miami · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
74.7%
Implied Probability
56.2%
Model Edge
+18.5%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rushing Yards74.7%56.2%1.34+18.5%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) Over 0.5 Rushing Yards (-128)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The betting rationale for Tua Tagovailoa to go Over 0.5 in the 'player_rush_yds' market largely draws from his historical performance against the New York Jets. Specifically, his hit rate is favorable when playing against the Jets, with a 2/3 hit rate overall and a 1/2 hit rate when at home. Furthermore, Tagovailoa is currently on a hit streak against the Jets, both in general and when playing at home, suggesting a positive trend. However, it's important to note that his overall and home hit rates are less promising, with only a 22/45 and 10/23 hit rate respectively. His recent performance also indicates a lack of rushing yards, as seen in his overall hit rate for the last 5 and 3 games (0/5 and 0/3 respectively). Therefore, while the bet relies on Tagovailoa's historical performance against the Jets, it's worth considering his overall

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Rushing Yards17 lines trackedNo line posted
24.5typical line · rushing yds
line range0.5–39.5model over23%tips tracked17

Tua Tagovailoa's NFL rushing yards prop has been priced 17 times, typically around a 24.5 rushing yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tua Tagovailoa is Over 0.5 on Rushing Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.5% on this pick. Their next game is New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins at Miami. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks