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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sterling Shepard is Under 22.5 on Receiving Yards.
On the Receiving Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +19.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
NFL

Sterling Shepard

TB

+19.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 22.5 -112 (1.89)
+19.5% Edge
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.4%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+19.5%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards72.4%—52.9%1.38+19.5%

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AI Analysis

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Sterling Shepard (TB) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Sterling Shepard to go under 22.5 in 'player_reception_yds' appears to be a strong play considering his recent performance and hit rates. Shepard has fallen short of this mark in both his last three overall games (0/3) and his last three home games (1/3). Moreover, when facing the Philadelphia Eagles, Shepard's hit rate has been below average, both overall (1/2) and at home (1/2). His longer-term performance reflects a similar trend. In his last 20 games, Shepard has fallen short of the 22.5-yard threshold more than half the time (8/20). At home, his hit rate improves only slightly to 10/15. Against the Eagles, his hit rate remains at 50% (1/2), both overall and at home. Finally, Shepard's current hit streaks are all at zero, indicating a recent dip in his performance. This further supports a bet

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards3 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–22.5tips tracked3

Sterling Shepard's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 3 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sterling Shepard (TB) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sterling Shepard is Under 22.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.5% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tampa Bay. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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