Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sterling Shepard is Under 22.5 on Receiving Yards.
On the Receiving Yards market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +19.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:39PM UTC
NFL

Sterling Shepard

TB

+19.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 22.5 -112 (1.89) · $100→$189
+19.5% Edge
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.4%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+19.5%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards72.4%52.9%1.38+19.5%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Sterling Shepard (TB) Under 22.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Sterling Shepard to go under 22.5 in 'player_reception_yds' appears to be a strong play considering his recent performance and hit rates. Shepard has fallen short of this mark in both his last three overall games (0/3) and his last three home games (1/3). Moreover, when facing the Philadelphia Eagles, Shepard's hit rate has been below average, both overall (1/2) and at home (1/2). His longer-term performance reflects a similar trend. In his last 20 games, Shepard has fallen short of the 22.5-yard threshold more than half the time (8/20). At home, his hit rate improves only slightly to 10/15. Against the Eagles, his hit rate remains at 50% (1/2), both overall and at home. Finally, Shepard's current hit streaks are all at zero, indicating a recent dip in his performance. This further supports a bet

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards3 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–22.5tips tracked3

Sterling Shepard's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 3 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Sterling Shepard (TB) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sterling Shepard is Under 22.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.5% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tampa Bay. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.