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NFL

Sterling Shepard

NYJ

Value call

Sterling Shepard has one live pick today: to score a touchdown that pays $1,700 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
6 in 100
Predicted
0.1 Anytime TD
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 6.3% · before adjusting for past results 10.1% · the book's price implies 5.9% · gap +0.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears
Chicago · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Sterling Shepard
to score a touchdown
Anytime TD Yes +1600 (17.00) · $100→$1,700
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 6 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$170.00 Odds+1600
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sterling Shepard is Yes on Anytime TD.
On Anytime TD, our numbers say this bet wins about 6 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 6%, the price says 6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 1:45AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Anytime TD10.1%6.3%5.9%17.00+4.3%

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AI Analysis

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Chicago Bears vs New York Jets: Sterling Shepard Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1600)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

For Sterling Shepard to score a touchdown tonight, he needs to find the end zone during the game. The Bears have had a tough time stopping both the pass and the run, allowing almost 374 yards a game. This could give Shepard plenty of chances to get open and make a big play against a defense that has struggled this season. The New York Jets have also had their share of struggles, moving the chains only about 15 times a game. Still, Shepard is a talented receiver who can capitalize on any opportunity. The risk is that the Bears, while not great, can still hold their own at home. But at those odds, it's worth taking a shot that Shepard can turn things around and score.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards3 lines trackedNo line posted
14.5typical line · receiving yds
line range14.5–22.5tips tracked3

Sterling Shepard's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 3 times, typically around a 14.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Anytime TD1 line trackedNo line posted
10%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked1

Sterling Shepard's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 1 time, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 10%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sterling Shepard (NYJ) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sterling Shepard is Yes on Anytime TD. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.3% on this pick. Their next game is New York Jets vs Chicago Bears on Sunday 4 October at Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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