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The latest Bet Better model pick for Robbie Chosen is Over 19.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt).
On the Receiving Yards (Alt) market the model assigns a model win probability of 36%, versus the book's implied 17%, for a model edge of +18.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
NFL

Robbie Chosen

MIA

+18.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards (Alt) Over 19.5 +490 (5.90)
+18.6% Edge
Washington Commanders @ Miami Dolphins
Miami · Indoor
No injury designationSeason pending
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
35.5%
Implied Probability
17.0%
Model Edge
+18.6%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards (Alt)35.5%—17.0%2.81+18.6%

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AI Analysis

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Robbie Chosen (MIA) Over 19.5 Player reception yds alternate (+490)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting on Robbie Chosen to achieve over 19.5 receiving yards in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market requires careful consideration of his recent performance and hit rates. Chosen's overall hit rate in the last 20 games is 35% (7/20), slightly better at home with a hit rate of 46% (6/13). However, his recent form suggests a downward trend: in his last 5 matches, he didn't surpass 19.5 receiving yards at all (0/5); and his hit rate at home is only 40% (2/5). Moreover, he's currently on a zero hit streak both overall and at home, indicating a slump in his performance. Despite having a model edge of 0.1859, the data suggest that betting on Chosen to go over 19.5 receiving yards in this game might be risky considering his recent poor performance.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receiving Yards4 lines trackedNo line posted
19.5typical line · receiving yds
line range19.5–39.5model over36%tips tracked4

Robbie Chosen's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 4 times, typically around a 19.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receptions2 lines trackedNo line posted
0.5typical line · receptions
line range0.5–1.5model over60%tips tracked2

Robbie Chosen's NFL receptions prop has been priced 2 times, typically around a 0.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Robbie Chosen (MIA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Robbie Chosen is Over 19.5 on Receiving Yards (Alt). The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.6% on this pick. Their next game is Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins at Miami. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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