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The latest Bet Better model pick for Cedric Tillman is Under 1.5 on Receptions.
On the Receptions market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 60%, for a model edge of +13.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
NFL

Cedric Tillman

CLE

+13.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Receptions Under 1.5 -152 (1.66)
+13.3% Edge
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns
Cleveland · Indoor
UNKNOWNSeason pending
Tillman will face increased competition for snaps and targets after the Browns drafted a pair of rookie wide receivers in first-rounder KC Concepcion and second-rounder Denzel Boston in the 2026 Draft, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.
updated Apr 27, 3:27PM UTC · 84d old
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Model Probability
73.5%
Implied Probability
60.2%
Model Edge
+13.3%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions73.5%—60.2%1.36+13.3%

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AI Analysis

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Cedric Tillman (CLE) Under 1.5 Receptions (-152)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Cedric Tillman for Under 1.5 in the 'player_receptions' market is justified by several key stats. Firstly, Tillman has shown consistency in staying under this mark, with an overall hit rate of 13/29 and a home hit rate of 8/17. He's also on a strong current streak, hitting under 1.5 receptions in his last three games overall and his last two home games. His performance becomes even more compelling when looking at his recent games, in which he stayed under 1.5 receptions 3 out of his last 5 games overall, and 2 out of his last 5 home games. Given these trends, Tillman's likelihood of receiving under 1.5 passes in the upcoming game against the Buffalo Bills is statistically significant, supporting the suggestion to place this under bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receptions3 lines trackedNo line posted
1.5typical line · receptions
line range1.5–1.5tips tracked3

Cedric Tillman's NFL receptions prop has been priced 3 times, typically around a 1.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards3 lines trackedNo line posted
13.5typical line · receiving yds
line range12.5–13.5tips tracked3

Cedric Tillman's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 3 times, typically around a 13.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Cedric Tillman (CLE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Cedric Tillman is Under 1.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.3% on this pick. Their next game is Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns at Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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