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NFL

Case Keenum

CHI

Value call

Case Keenum has one live pick today: under 0.5 passing touchdowns that pays $252 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
39 in 100
Predicted
0.7 passing touchdowns
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 39.5% · before adjusting for past results 51.8% · the book's price implies 39.7% · gap -0.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Chicago · Indoor
Mon 28 Sep, 8:15 PM ET
Case Keenum
under 0.5 passing touchdowns
Passing Touchdowns Under 0.5 +152 (2.52) · $100→$252
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 39 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$25.20 Odds+152
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Case Keenum is Under 0.5 on Passing Touchdowns.
On Passing Touchdowns, our numbers say this bet wins about 39 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 39%, the price says 40%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 3:23PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: +$20,973 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
Keenum (coach's decision) is inactive but will operate as the Bears' emergency third quarterback for Thursday night's matchup against the Patriots.
updated Oct 22, 11:13PM UTC · 3d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Passing Touchdowns51.8%39.5%39.7%2.69+12.1%

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AI Analysis

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Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles: Case Keenum Under 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+162)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

For this bet, we need Case Keenum to throw no passing touchdowns against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Bears' defense has been pretty generous lately, allowing a lot of yards each game, but Keenum hasn't been the main guy for scoring. He only took a tiny fraction of the carries last season, and he hasn't shown much in the way of throwing touchdowns. The Eagles' defense is solid, giving up fewer yards than Chicago's. With Keenum's limited role and the Eagles playing tough defense, there's a good chance he might not find the end zone tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD2 lines trackedNo line posted
8%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked2

Case Keenum's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 2 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 8%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Sep 26 Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears Passing Touchdowns — — — Pending
28 Sep 26 Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears Rushing Attempts — — — Pending
28 Sep 26 Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears Rushing Attempts (Alt) — — — Pending

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About This Player

Case Keenum (CHI) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Case Keenum is Under 0.5 on Passing Touchdowns. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.1% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears on Monday 28 September at Chicago. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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