Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Arian Smith is Yes on Anytime TD.
On Anytime TD, our numbers say this bet wins about 7 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 7%, the price says 4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 23, 7:55PM UTC
NFL
Arian Smith
NYJ
Arian Smith has one live pick today: Anytime TD Yes that pays $2,600 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.
Latest Model Pick
Anytime TD
Yes
+2500 (26.00) · $100→$2,600
Value call
Green Bay Packers
@
New York Jets
New York · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 5:00PM
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate team total points overs: 365 of 558 rightToday’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUTSeason pending
The Jets placed Smith (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday.
updated Sep 22, 11:48PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss.
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How often this wins
7 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: our chance 7.0% · before adjusting for past results 11.6% · the book's price implies 3.9% · gap +3.2%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Anytime TD | 11.6% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 26.00 | +7.8% |
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Arian Smith (NYJ) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+2500)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
New York Jets play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Arian Smith (NYJ) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer. It was priced at +2500 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $260 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formAnytime TD4 lines trackedNo line posted
12%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked4
Arian Smith's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 4 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 12%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 20 Sep 26 |
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets |
Total Touchdowns |
— |
— |
— |
Pending |
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Arian Smith (NYJ) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Arian Smith is Yes on Anytime TD. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.8% on this pick. Their next game is Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets on Sunday 20 September at New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.
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