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NFL

Arian Smith

NYJ

Value call

Arian Smith has one live pick today: to score a touchdown that pays $10,100 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
1 in 100
Predicted
0.1 Last Touchdown Scorer
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 0.8% · before adjusting for past results 11.6% · the book's price implies 1.0% · gap -0.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets
New York · Indoor
Sun 20 Sep, 1:00 PM ET
Arian Smith
to score a touchdown
Last Touchdown Scorer Yes +10000 (101.00) · $100→$10,100
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 1 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$1010.00 Odds+10000
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Arian Smith is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer.
On Last Touchdown Scorer, our numbers say this bet wins about 1 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 1%, the price says 1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 2:54AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Last Touchdown Scorer11.6%0.8%1.0%101.00+10.6%

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AI Analysis

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Arian Smith (NYJ) Yes Player last td (+10000)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

New York Jets play Green Bay Packers in the NFL on Sunday 20 September 2026. The bet we are looking at is Arian Smith (NYJ) Yes Player last td. It was priced at +10000 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $1010 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Anytime TD4 lines trackedNo line posted
12%model anytime-TD prob
tips tracked4

Arian Smith's NFL anytime td prop has been priced 4 times, with a modelled anytime-touchdown probability near 12%. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
20 Sep 26 Green Bay Packers @ New York Jets Total Touchdowns — — — Pending

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About This Player

Arian Smith (NYJ) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Arian Smith is Yes on Last Touchdown Scorer. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.6% on this pick. Their next game is Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets on Sunday 20 September at New York. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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