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NCAAF

Xay Davis

Virginia

Value call

Xay Davis (Virginia) has one live pick today: over 0.5 rush tds that pays $530 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LONG-SHOT
How often this wins
39 in 100
Predicted
0.3 Rush TDs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 38.8% · before adjusting for past results 19.3% · the book's price implies 18.9% · gap +20.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Virginia Cavaliers @ SMU Mustangs
Sat 17 Oct, 12:00 PM ET
Xay Davis
over 0.5 rush tds
Rush TDs Over 0.5 +430 (5.30) · $100→$530
Value call
LONG-SHOTWins about 39 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$53.00 Odds+430
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Xay Davis is Over 0.5 on Rush TDs.
On Rush TDs, our numbers say this bet wins about 39 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 39%, the price says 19%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NCAAF schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 3:26PM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls ncaaf totals overs: 945 of 1,745 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rush TDs19.3%38.8%18.9%2.58+0.5%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Cavaliers: Xay Davis Over 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns (+430)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Saturday 17 October 2026, SMU Mustangs host Virginia Cavaliers in college football. The bet we are looking at is Xay Davis Over 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns. This wins if Xay Davis finishes with more than 0.5 rushing touchdowns. It was priced at +430 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $53 if it lands. That price was showing at Fliff. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Oct 26 Virginia Cavaliers @ SMU Mustangs Rush TDs — — — Pending
03 Oct 26 Virginia Cavaliers @ Florida State Seminoles Rush TDs — — — Pending

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About This Player

Xay Davis (Virginia) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NCAAF player prop betting. The latest model pick for Xay Davis is Over 0.5 on Rush TDs. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.5% on this pick. Their next game is Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs on Saturday 17 October. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NCAAF betting strategy.

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