Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Matt Wagner is Under 43.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 64%, the price says 53%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NCAAF schedule.
Model updated Oct 5, 3:33AM UTC
NCAAF

Matt Wagner

Boise State

Value call

Matt Wagner (Boise State) has one live pick today: Receiving Yards Under 43.5 that pays $188 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Receiving Yards Under 43.5 -114 (1.88) · $100→$188
Value call
Utah State Aggies @ Boise State Broncos
Sat 3 Oct, 11:30PM
The recordWhen our formula calls ncaaf totals overs: 603 of 1,118 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
64 in 100
Predicted
37.1 Receiving Yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 63.5% · the book's price implies 53.2% · gap +13.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards63.5%—53.2%2.00+13.3%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

See his full recent form

Unlock how often this player has landed over his last 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 games — plus his current streak.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Boise State Broncos vs Utah State Aggies: Matt Wagner Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Odds available at BetOnline at time of publishing

On Saturday 3 October 2026, Boise State Broncos host Utah State Aggies in college football. The bet we are looking at is Matt Wagner Under 43.5 Receiving Yards. This wins if Matt Wagner finishes with fewer than 43.5 receiving yards. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.77 if it lands. That price was showing at BetOnline. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
03 Oct 26 Utah State Aggies @ Boise State Broncos Receiving Yards 43.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 Boise State Broncos @ Western Michigan Broncos Receiving Yards 21.5 Over -114 ✓ HIT

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Matt Wagner (Boise State) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NCAAF player prop betting. The latest model pick for Matt Wagner is Under 43.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.3% on this pick. Their next game is Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos on Saturday 3 October. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NCAAF betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.