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NCAAF

Ed Small

TCU

Value call

Ed Small has one live pick today: over 3.5 receptions that pays $198 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
46 in 100
Predicted
7.0 receptions
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 45.5% · before adjusting for past results 98.5% · the book's price implies 50.5% · gap -5.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
TCU Horned Frogs @ Baylor Bears
Sat 17 Oct, 7:00 PM ET
Ed Small
over 3.5 receptions
Receptions Over 3.5 -102 (1.98) · $100→$198
Value call
LEANWins about 46 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.80 Odds-102
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ed Small is Over 3.5 on Receptions.
On Receptions, our numbers say this bet wins about 46 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 46%, the price says 51%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NCAAF schedule.
Model updated Oct 17, 8:14AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls ncaaf player rush yds unders: 257 of 443 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receptions98.5%45.5%50.5%2.11+51.0%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Baylor Bears vs TCU Horned Frogs: Ed Small Over 3.5 Receptions (-102)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Saturday 17 October 2026, Baylor Bears host TCU Horned Frogs in college football. The bet we are looking at is Ed Small Over 3.5 Receptions. This wins if Ed Small finishes with more than 3.5 receptions. It was priced at -102 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.80 if it lands. That price was showing at BetOnline. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Ed Small's lines for Sat 17 Oct

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Receptions 3.5
-110 best over price · 2 booksWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Ed Small's receptions line is 3.5, best over price -110 across 2 books. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Receiving Yards 35.5
-125 best over price · 1 book

Ed Small's receiving yards line is 35.5, best over price -125 across 1 book.

Receiving Yards 37.5
-125 best over price · 1 book

Ed Small's receiving yards line is 37.5, best over price -125 across 1 book.

Receiving Yards 39.5
-115 best over price · 1 bookWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Ed Small's receiving yards line is 39.5, best over price -115 across 1 book. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

Receiving Yards 40.5
-114 best over price · 5 booksWent over in 6 of the last 10 games

Ed Small's receiving yards line is 40.5, best over price -114 across 5 books. He has gone over it in 6 of his last 10 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
26 Sep 26 TCU Horned Frogs @ UCF Knights Receiving Yards 69.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
26 Sep 26 TCU Horned Frogs @ UCF Knights Receiving Yards 68.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
03 Oct 26 BYU Cougars @ TCU Horned Frogs Receiving Yards — — — Pending
03 Oct 26 BYU Cougars @ TCU Horned Frogs Receiving Yards — — — Pending
03 Oct 26 BYU Cougars @ TCU Horned Frogs Receiving Yards — — — Pending
26 Sep 26 TCU Horned Frogs @ UCF Knights Receptions — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ed Small (TCU) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NCAAF player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ed Small is Over 3.5 on Receptions. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +51.0% on this pick. Their next game is TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears on Saturday 17 October. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NCAAF betting strategy.

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