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The latest Bet Better model pick for Stephen Curry is Under 33.5 on Pts + Asts.
On the Pts + Asts market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +20.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
NBA

Stephen Curry

Golden State Warriors

+20.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Asts Under 33.5 -114 (1.88)
+20.6% Edge
Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns
Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ · Indoor
Sat 18 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
73.8%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+20.6%
Predicted Value
29.4 Pts + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Asts73.8%—53.2%1.35+20.6%

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AI Analysis

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Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors) Under 33.5 Points + Assists (-114)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Warriors head into Phoenix, all eyes will be on Stephen Curry, but betting on him to go under 33.5 points and assists feels like the play. Recent performances show a trend; over his last five games, he's averaging just 23.2 points and 3.6 assists, hardly the numbers you'd expect from a superstar. On the road, those figures dip slightly to 24.6 points and 4.2 assists, which still puts him comfortably short of our target. When facing the Suns, Curry has averaged 22 points and 5 assists in recent matchups, but he's done even worse away, with only 20.6 points and 5.4 assists. With a hit rate of 7 out of his last 8 outings going under this line, it seems Curry may be more of a decoy than the offensive juggernaut we're used to. This game may not be his stage to shine, making the under a

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
3-Pointers Made2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
4.5avg · last 10
L53.6Szn4.4Home4.3Away4.5Best16
2+94%
3+80%
4+65%
5+40%
6+25%
Game log vs O 3.5avg 4.5 · hi 7 · lo 2
7654523643

Stephen Curry is averaging 4.5 3-pointers made over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.4, best 16). He clears 4+ in 65% of 2024-25 games.

Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
5.1avg · last 10
L54.0Szn5.8Home5.3Away6.2Best15
2+91%
4+79%
6+57%
8+25%
10+10%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 5.1 · hi 9 · lo 1
6439937271

Stephen Curry is averaging 5.1 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.8, best 15). He clears 6+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
25.4avg · last 10
L518.8Szn24.1Home23.4Away24.9Best62
14+84%
19+70%
24+52%
29+32%
34+17%
Game log vs O 23.5avg 25.4 · hi 37 · lo 13
36373120361713292213

Stephen Curry is averaging 25.4 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 24.1, best 62). He clears 24+ in 52% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
50%hit · L10
30.5avg · last 10
L522.8Szn29.9Home28.7Away31.1Best66
20+81%
25+70%
30+51%
35+33%
40+21%
Game log vs O 29.5avg 30.5 · hi 45 · lo 14
42413429452020312914

Stephen Curry is averaging 30.5 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 29.9, best 66). He clears 30+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
30.7avg · last 10
L523.6Szn28.7Home27.6Away29.8Best67
19+83%
24+68%
29+51%
34+35%
39+15%
Game log vs O 28.5avg 30.7 · hi 45 · lo 14
39453725432016363214

Stephen Curry is averaging 30.7 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 28.7, best 67). He clears 29+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
35.8avg · last 10
L527.6Szn34.5Home32.8Away36.0Best71
24+81%
29+69%
34+56%
39+42%
44+21%
Game log vs O 33.5avg 35.8 · hi 52 · lo 15
45494034522323383915

Stephen Curry is averaging 35.8 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 34.5, best 71). He clears 34+ in 56% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
5.3avg · last 10
L54.8Szn4.6Home4.2Away4.9Best15
1+100%
3+80%
5+46%
7+27%
9+6%
Game log vs O 4.5avg 5.3 · hi 10 · lo 1
38657337101

Stephen Curry is averaging 5.3 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 4.6, best 15). He clears 5+ in 46% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Asts 33.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Pts + Rebs + Asts 37.5 Under -118 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns Assists 5.5 Under -192 ✓ HIT
08 Apr 26 Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
08 Apr 26 Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors Points — — — Pending

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About This Player

Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Stephen Curry is Under 33.5 on Pts + Asts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.6% on this pick. Their next game is Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns on Saturday 18 April at Footprint Center, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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