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The latest Bet Better model pick for Scottie Barnes is Under 6.5 on Assists.
On the Assists market the model assigns a model win probability of 79%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +25.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
NBA

Scottie Barnes

Toronto Raptors

+25.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Assists Under 6.5 -114 (1.88)
+25.8% Edge
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH · Indoor
Sat 18 Apr, 5:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
79.0%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+25.8%
Predicted Value
5.1 Assists

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Assists79.0%—53.2%1.27+25.8%

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AI Analysis

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Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors) Under 6.5 Assists (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Raptors roll into Cleveland, all eyes will be on Scottie Barnes, but there's reason to believe he might struggle to hit the over on 6.5 assists. Away from home, his numbers have dipped, averaging just 6.2 assists against the Cavaliers in their last matchup. While he's proven to be a playmaker, his recent form shows he's only cleared this mark in 3 of his last 4 games. Cleveland's defense is known for tightening up, especially against versatile players like Barnes, and they've been particularly effective in limiting assists. With an average of 5.07 expected assists factoring into this matchup, it feels like the under is the safer route. Given that he's only exceeded 6.5 assists in 10 of his last 15 away games, betting on the under seems like a smart play as he navigates a challenging Cavs' defense.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
5.4avg · last 10
L55.0Szn5.8Home6.0Away5.6Best14
2+100%
4+83%
6+51%
8+25%
10+5%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 5.4 · hi 8 · lo 3
6856445538

Scottie Barnes is averaging 5.4 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.8, best 14). He clears 6+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
16.9avg · last 10
L518.4Szn19.3Home18.4Away20.2Best35
9+97%
14+83%
19+51%
24+25%
29+9%
Game log vs O 18.5avg 16.9 · hi 35 · lo 5
22131518995172635

Scottie Barnes is averaging 16.9 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 19.3, best 35). He clears 19+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
22.3avg · last 10
L523.4Szn25.1Home24.4Away25.8Best44
15+91%
20+82%
25+49%
30+25%
35+9%
Game log vs O 24.5avg 22.3 · hi 43 · lo 10
28212024131310222943

Scottie Barnes is averaging 22.3 points + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 25.1, best 44). He clears 25+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
24.0avg · last 10
L525.8Szn27.0Home25.7Away28.4Best48
17+89%
22+77%
27+57%
32+26%
37+9%
Game log vs O 26.5avg 24 · hi 46 · lo 7
2823222414137283546

Scottie Barnes is averaging 24.0 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 27.0, best 48). He clears 27+ in 57% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
29.4avg · last 10
L530.8Szn32.8Home31.7Away34.0Best54
23+88%
28+77%
33+48%
38+26%
43+12%
Game log vs O 32.5avg 29.4 · hi 54 · lo 12
34312730181712333854

Scottie Barnes is averaging 29.4 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 32.8, best 54). He clears 33+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
7.1avg · last 10
L57.4Szn7.7Home7.3Away8.2Best17
4+83%
6+71%
8+54%
10+38%
12+17%
Game log vs O 7.5avg 7.1 · hi 11 · lo 2
6107654211911

Scottie Barnes is averaging 7.1 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.7, best 17). He clears 8+ in 54% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
12.5avg · last 10
L512.4Szn13.5Home13.3Away13.8Best24
8+92%
11+72%
14+49%
17+28%
20+8%
Game log vs O 13.5avg 12.5 · hi 19 · lo 7
12181212987161219

Scottie Barnes is averaging 12.5 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 13.5, best 24). He clears 14+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Assists 6.5 Under -114 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Rebounds 9.5 Under -345 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Rebounds 7.5 Under -109 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Pts + Rebs — — — Pending
09 Apr 26 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Rebounds — — — Pending
09 Apr 26 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Points — — — Pending

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About This Player

Scottie Barnes (Toronto Raptors) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Scottie Barnes is Under 6.5 on Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +25.8% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday 18 April at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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