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The latest Bet Better model pick for Kawhi Leonard is Under 44.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists.
On the Points + Rebounds + Assists market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +20.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 8:55AM UTC
NBA

Kawhi Leonard

LA Clippers

+20.6% Edge
🔥 14 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Pts + Rebs + Asts Under 44.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+20.6% Edge
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers
Intuit Dome, Inglewood, CA · Indoor
Thu 16 Apr, 2:00AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
90.6%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+20.6%
Predicted Value
34.6 Pts + Rebs + Asts

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pts + Rebs + Asts90.6%—69.9%1.10+20.6%

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AI Analysis

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Kawhi Leonard (LA Clippers) Under 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-233)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Clippers gear up to face the Warriors, targeting Kawhi Leonard's combined points, rebounds, and assists for under 44.5 feels like a savvy play. Recently, Leonard has been a steady scorer with an average of 25.6 points over his last five outings, but the numbers reveal a trend that suggests he might not hit that lofty total tonight. His contributions in rebounds and assists have been solid but not overwhelming, averaging just 6.4 boards and 3.8 assists.Furthermore, in matchups against the Warriors, he has historically averaged 22.4 points, which is well below our threshold. With a hit rate of 14 for 14 on this under in the last 14 games, plus an impressive 8 for 8 at home, the evidence leans towards a quieter night for Kawhi. Given the Warriors' defensive prowess, betting the under seems like the smart money here.

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Pick History & Track Record

Kawhi Leonard — 2024-25 season averages

Over 44 games in the 2024-25 season, Kawhi Leonard averaged 22.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists in 32.8 minutes per game, shooting 50.4% from the field and 41.0% from three-point range.

22.1
PPG
6.2
RPG
3.4
APG
1.5
SPG
0.5
BPG
32.8
MPG
50.4%
FG%
41.0%
3P%

Kawhi Leonard — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Kawhi Leonard has played 36.8 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

36.8
MPG (L5)
22.8
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Kawhi Leonard — points hit rate

Kawhi Leonard has scored over 20.5 points in 43% of 744 career games.

o11.578%
o12.574%
o15.563%
o20.543%
o25.526%
o30.513%

Kawhi Leonard — home vs away scoring

At home Kawhi Leonard averages 20.4 points per game; on the road, 23.9. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

20.4
PPG at home
23.9
PPG on the road

Kawhi Leonard — scoring by opponent

Kawhi Leonard scores most against the PHI, averaging 30.2 points per game in that matchup.

30.2
PHI
27.9
WSH
27.8
SAC
27.6
DAL
27.4
GS
27.1
BKN

Kawhi Leonard — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Kawhi Leonard has averaged 25.8 points, 7.6 rebounds and 4.7 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
3 May@ DEN332252
1 Mayvs DEN3927105
29 Apr@ DEN3720911
26 Aprvs DEN402492
24 Aprvs DEN3521116
21 Apr@ DEN393935
19 Apr@ DEN412262
13 Apr@ GS473367
11 Apr@ SAC422873
9 Aprvs HOU3822104
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Kawhi Leonard (LA Clippers) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Kawhi Leonard is currently on a 14-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Kawhi Leonard is Under 44.5 on Points + Rebounds + Assists. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +20.6% on this pick. Their next game is Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday 16 April at Intuit Dome, Inglewood. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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