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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jakob Poeltl is Under 9.5 on Rebounds.
On Rebounds, our numbers say this bet wins about 91 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 91%, implied 78%, edge +13.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 7:14PM UTC
NBA

Jakob Poeltl

Toronto Raptors

+13.1% Edge
🔥 9 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 9.5 -345 (1.29) · $100→$129
+13.1% Edge
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH · Indoor
Sat 18 Apr, 5:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
91 in 100
Predicted
6.3 Rebounds
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 90.6% · the book's price implies 77.5% · gap +13.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds90.6%77.5%1.10+13.1%

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AI Analysis

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Jakob Poeltl (Toronto Raptors) Under 9.5 Rebounds (-345)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Raptors gear up to face the Cavaliers, all eyes are on Jakob Poeltl's rebounding game. Despite his reputation, the numbers suggest he might struggle to hit the over on 9.5 boards in this matchup. Over the last five games, Poeltl has averaged just 3.6 rebounds overall, and when away, that number climbs to a mere 4.4. Historically, he's faced the Cavaliers with similar struggles, averaging only 11 rebounds in his last five encounters, but that's misleading given his consistent decline on the road.In fact, he's gone under 9.5 in every one of his last six away games. With just a 77.5% implied probability for hitting the over, the under feels like a solid play. Given these trends, it's wise to lean into Poeltl's recent performances and expect him to fall short of that 9.5 mark tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Jakob Poeltl — 2024-25 season averages

Over 57 games in the 2024-25 season, Jakob Poeltl averaged 14.5 points, 9.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 29.6 minutes per game, shooting 62.7% from the field and 33.3% from three-point range.

14.5
PPG
9.6
RPG
2.8
APG
1.2
SPG
1.2
BPG
29.6
MPG
62.7%
FG%
33.3%
3P%

Jakob Poeltl — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Jakob Poeltl has played 27.0 minutes per game and started 100% of them.

27.0
MPG (L5)
17.0
PPG (L5)
100%
Started

Jakob Poeltl — home vs away scoring

At home Jakob Poeltl averages 15.0 points per game; on the road, 13.9. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

15.0
PPG at home
13.9
PPG on the road

Jakob Poeltl — scoring by opponent

Jakob Poeltl scores most against the IND, averaging 14.6 points per game in that matchup.

14.6
IND
13.1
WSH
12.9
CHI
11.5
PHI
11.2
POR
11.1
ATL

Jakob Poeltl — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Jakob Poeltl has averaged 16.7 points, 8.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
4 Aprvs DET3110112
1 Apr@ CHI241252
28 Marvs CHA2624123
24 Mar@ WSH2621111
20 Mar@ GS281882
16 Mar@ POR251983
12 Marvs PHI17952
8 Marvs WSH242155
4 Mar@ ORL241772
2 Mar@ ORL2616113
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Mar 26 Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards Pts + Rebs 18.5 Over -130 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jakob Poeltl (Toronto Raptors) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Jakob Poeltl is currently on a 9-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Jakob Poeltl is Under 9.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.1% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday 18 April at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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