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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jakob Poeltl is Under 9.5 on Rebounds.
On the Rebounds market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 78%, for a model edge of +13.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:06PM UTC
NBA

Jakob Poeltl

Toronto Raptors

+13.1% Edge
🔥 9 Consecutive Hits
Latest Model Pick
Rebounds Under 9.5 -345 (1.29)
+13.1% Edge
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH · Indoor
Sat 18 Apr, 5:00PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
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Model Probability
90.6%
Implied Probability
77.5%
Model Edge
+13.1%
Predicted Value
6.3 Rebounds

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Rebounds90.6%77.5%1.10+13.1%

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AI Analysis

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Jakob Poeltl (Toronto Raptors) Under 9.5 Rebounds (-345)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Raptors gear up for their away game against the Cavaliers, all eyes should be on Jakob Poeltl's rebounding numbers. Despite his tall frame, Poeltl has been averaging just 3.6 rebounds over his last five games, and when playing on the road, that average dips slightly to 4.4. Now, let's consider the Cavaliers' frontcourt-they're a tough match-up for Poeltl, notorious for their physical play and solid rebounding. Historically, Poeltl has struggled against Cleveland, averaging just 11 rebounds per game in their past encounters, but that's a deceptive number since it's skewed by earlier seasons. With an expected rebound stat of only 6.3, betting the under on 9.5 seems like a smart move. His recent form shows he hasn't surpassed that mark in his last six away games, hitting the under every time. It's a bet that feels safe based on the current trends and match-up

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
2.5avg · last 10
L52.0Szn2.8Home2.9Away2.7Best9
1+96%
3+49%
5+14%
7+2%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 2.5 · hi 5 · lo 1
3252321322

Jakob Poeltl is averaging 2.5 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.8, best 9). He clears 3+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Points + Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
25.0avg · last 10
L526.4Szn24.1Home24.7Away23.4Best47
14+93%
19+74%
24+49%
29+23%
34+16%
Game log vs O 23.5avg 25 · hi 36 · lo 14
27242614272632361721

Jakob Poeltl is averaging 25.0 points + rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 24.1, best 47). He clears 24+ in 49% of 2024-25 games.

Pts + Reb + Ast2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
27.5avg · last 10
L528.4Szn26.8Home27.6Away26.1Best50
17+91%
22+72%
27+47%
32+25%
37+16%
Game log vs O 26.5avg 27.5 · hi 39 · lo 16
30263116302833391923

Jakob Poeltl is averaging 27.5 pts + reb + ast over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 26.8, best 50). He clears 27+ in 47% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds2024-25 · formNo line posted
8.3avg · last 10
L59.4Szn9.6Home9.7Away9.5Best19
6+84%
8+74%
10+51%
12+26%
14+11%
Game log vs O 9.5avg 8.3 · hi 12 · lo 5
11755881112511

Jakob Poeltl is averaging 8.3 rebounds over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 9.6, best 19). He clears 10+ in 51% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Rebounds 9.5 Under -345 ✓ HIT
10 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks Pts + Rebs 16.5 Over -108 ✗ MISS
07 Apr 26 Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Rebounds 10.5 Under -435 ✓ HIT
05 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs Pending
05 Apr 26 Toronto Raptors @ Boston Celtics Pts + Rebs Pending

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About This Player

Jakob Poeltl (Toronto Raptors) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. Jakob Poeltl is currently on a 9-pick winning streak. The latest model pick for Jakob Poeltl is Under 9.5 on Rebounds. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.1% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday 18 April at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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