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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tyler Fitzgerald is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases.
On the Batter - Stolen Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +3.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
MLB

Tyler Fitzgerald

SFG

+3.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Stolen Bases Under 0.5 -714 (1.14)
+3.8% Edge
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona · Indoor
Fri 4 Jul, 1:40AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
91.6%
Implied Probability
87.7%
Model Edge
+3.8%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Stolen Bases91.6%87.7%1.09+3.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Tyler Fitzgerald (SFG) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-714)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Tyler Fitzgerald for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is a sound choice based on his recent performance. Over his last five games, Fitzgerald's average stolen base rate, both overall and specifically when playing away, is only 0.2. This indicates that he is not frequently stealing bases. He also has an average caught stealing rate of 0.2, suggesting he is often unsuccessful when he does attempt to steal. Furthermore, his current hit streak when playing away is zero, which implies he may struggle to get on base in the first place. These statistics collectively suggest that Fitzgerald is unlikely to steal a base in the upcoming game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, making the Under 0.5 bet a strong choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
1avg hits · L5
L2065%

Tyler Fitzgerald MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 70% of the last 10 games; averaging 1 hits over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
1avg total bases · L5

Tyler Fitzgerald MLB total bases: averaging 1 total bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
1.6avg H+R+RBI · L5
Streak3L2080%

Tyler Fitzgerald MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.6 H+R+RBI over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
1avg singles · L5
Streak3L2060%

Tyler Fitzgerald MLB singles: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 1 singles over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.4avg walks · L5
O 0.530%
O 1.510%

Tyler Fitzgerald MLB walks: averaging 0.4 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Stolen BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg stolen bases · L5

Tyler Fitzgerald MLB stolen bases: averaging 0.2 stolen bases over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Tyler Fitzgerald (SFG) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tyler Fitzgerald is Under 0.5 on Batter - Stolen Bases. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.8% on this pick. Their next game is San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday 4 July at Chase Field, Phoenix. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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