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The latest Bet Better model pick for Pablo Lopez is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 93%, for a model edge of +3.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 7:32PM UTC
MLB

Pablo Lopez

MIN

+3.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -1250 (1.08) · $100→$108
+3.0% Edge
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
Wed 28 May, 5:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 559 of 1,032 right
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
OUT
The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
updated May 8, 11:02AM UTC · 95d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.6%
Implied Probability
92.6%
Model Edge
+3.0%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed95.6%—92.6%1.05+3.0%

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AI Analysis

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Pablo Lopez (MIN) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Pablo Lopez's recent performance data suggests a strong likelihood of him allowing over 2.5 hits in the upcoming game against the Tampa Bay Rays. In his last five games, both overall and away, he has averaged well above the line of 2.5 hits allowed. His overall average sits at 6 hits, while his away average is even higher at 6.4 hits. Specifically against the Rays, his average hits allowed is 7. His current hit streak, both overall and away, further supports this trend. He has a 19-game overall hit streak and a 12-game away hit streak. Hence, his consistent pattern of allowing a significant number of hits, especially when playing away, makes betting over 2.5 a statistically sound choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Pablo Lopez (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Pablo Lopez is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.0% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday 28 May at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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