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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Pablo Lopez is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks.
On the Pitcher - Walks market the model assigns a model win probability of 95%, versus the book's implied 79%, for a model edge of +15.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 1:50PM UTC
MLB

Pablo Lopez

MIN

+15.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Walks Over 0.5 -385 (1.26)
+15.9% Edge
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida · Indoor
Wed 28 May, 5:10PM
OUT
The Twins placed Lopez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
updated May 8, 11:02AM UTC · 75d old
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.3%
Implied Probability
79.4%
Model Edge
+15.9%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Walks95.3%79.4%1.05+15.9%

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AI Analysis

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Pablo Lopez (MIN) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-385)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Pablo Lopez to allow over 0.5 walks is supported by his recent performance data. Over his last five games, both overall and away, he's averaged more than 0.5 walks per game. Specifically, his overall average walks allowed is 1.2 and his away average is 1.0, both comfortably above the line. His innings pitched and outs averages also suggest he's consistently on the mound for a significant duration, increasing the chances of conceding a walk. Furthermore, his current hit streak of 2 games, both overall and away, indicates a recent trend of conceding hits, which may correlate with a higher likelihood of walks. Therefore, based on his recent performances and current form, it's statistically likely that Pablo Lopez will allow over 0.5 walks in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Pablo Lopez (MIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Pablo Lopez is Over 0.5 on Pitcher - Walks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.9% on this pick. Their next game is Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday 28 May at Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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