Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Michael Lorenzen is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 91%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +27.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:17PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts
Under 3.5
-172 (1.58) · $100→$158
+27.3% Edge
Colorado Rockies
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 6:15PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs COL @ STL
updated Aug 9, 6:15PM UTC
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Implied Probability
63.3%
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Pitcher - Strikeouts | 90.6% | — | 63.3% | 1.10 | +27.3% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 0/3 |
| Last 5 games | 0/5 |
| Last 10 games | 0/10 |
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Michael Lorenzen (CIN) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-172)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
St. Louis Cardinals play Colorado Rockies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Michael Lorenzen (CIN) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-172). That is a Strikeouts bet. It was priced at -172 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.81 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
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Betting angles
Markets & formPitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 2.560%
O 3.530%
O 4.520%
O 5.510%
O 6.510%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 2 · hi 5 · lo 0
Michael Lorenzen MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted O 2.560%
O 3.560%
O 4.550%
O 5.530%
O 6.520%
Michael Lorenzen MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted Michael Lorenzen MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.
Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted Michael Lorenzen MLB outs: cleared over 15.5 in 50% of the last 10 games; averaging 14.2 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.
Michael Lorenzen (CIN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Michael Lorenzen is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +27.3% on this pick. Their next game is Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday 9 August at Busch Stadium, St. Louis. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.
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