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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Martin Perez is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed.
On the Pitcher - Hits Allowed market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 94%, for a model edge of +1.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:18PM UTC
MLB

Martin Perez

CHW

+1.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Hits Allowed Over 2.5 -1667 (1.06) · $100→$106
+1.4% Edge
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio · Outdoor
Fri 12 Sep, 11:10PM
The recordWhen our formula calls mlb total-runs unders: 546 of 996 right
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.8%
Implied Probability
94.3%
Model Edge
+1.4%
Predicted Value

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Hits Allowed95.8%94.3%1.04+1.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Martin Perez (CHW) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Martin Perez for Over 2.5 Hits Allowed is a sound choice considering his recent performance data. Perez's last five overall games show an average of 4.4 hits allowed, and his away games record is even higher at 5.2 hits on average. This is significantly above the betting line of 2.5. Additionally, his innings pitched (IP) averages are relatively low, both overall (4.5) and away (4.5), suggesting he tends to allow more hits in less time on the mound. Furthermore, Perez is on a current hit streak of 3 games, including away games, indicating a consistent pattern of allowing hits. Despite a slightly lower average of 3.5 hits allowed against the Cleveland Guardians, this is still above the line. These statistics strongly suggest that Perez is likely to allow more than 2.5 hits in the upcoming game.

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Pick History & Track Record

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Martin Perez (CHW) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Martin Perez is Over 2.5 on Pitcher - Hits Allowed. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians on Friday 12 September at Progressive Field, Cleveland. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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