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The latest Bet Better model pick for Logan Webb is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs.
On the Pitcher - Earned Runs market the model assigns a model win probability of 85%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +22.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 20, 3:44AM UTC
MLB

Logan Webb

SFG

+22.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Earned Runs Under 2.5 -169 (1.59)
+22.2% Edge
New York Yankees @ San Francisco Giants
Oracle Park, San Francisco, California · Outdoor
Thu 26 Mar, 12:05AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
85.1%
Implied Probability
62.9%
Model Edge
+22.2%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Earned Runs85.1%—62.9%1.18+22.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games6/10

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AI Analysis

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Logan Webb (SFG) Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-169)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When the Giants square off against the Yankees, all eyes will be on Logan Webb, a pitcher who’s been anything but ordinary this season. Webb has shown incredible control, posting a minuscule earned run average that speaks volumes about his ability to keep hitters off balance. The Yankees, despite their power-laden lineup, have recently struggled to capitalize on opportunities, particularly against right-handed pitchers like Webb, who boasts a solid strikeout rate and minimal hard contact. Moreover, the Giants' defense has been stellar, consistently backing Webb with timely plays that limit scoring chances. With the Yankees' recent dip in run production, especially in away games, it’s reasonable to expect Webb to hold them under 2.5 earned runs. Given the trends and Webb's form, this matchup feels ripe for an ‘Under’ play, especially with the Giants' home-field advantage in play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
56%hit L10
O 2.556%
O 3.522%
O 4.511%

Logan Webb MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 56% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak33L20100%
O 2.5100%
O 3.5100%
O 4.560%
O 5.540%
O 6.530%
O 7.520%
O 8.510%

Logan Webb MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2075%
O 0.560%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%

Logan Webb MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Earned RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
1.6avg earned runs · L5
L2070%

Logan Webb MLB earned runs: cleared over 1.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 1.6 earned runs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
18avg outs · L5
L2060%

Logan Webb MLB outs: cleared over 17.5 in 60% of the last 10 games; averaging 18 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Logan Webb (SFG) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Logan Webb is Under 2.5 on Pitcher - Earned Runs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +22.2% on this pick. Their next game is New York Yankees vs San Francisco Giants on Thursday 26 March at Oracle Park, San Francisco. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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