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The latest Bet Better model pick for JP Sears is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts.
On the Pitcher - Strikeouts market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +29.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
MLB

JP Sears

ATH

+29.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Pitcher - Strikeouts Under 3.5 -114 (1.88)
+29.8% Edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres
Petco Park, San Diego, California · Outdoor
Sat 11 Jul, 1:40AM
Confirmed probable starter
Probable SP vs SD @ ATL
updated Jul 20, 11:15PM UTC
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
83.0%
Implied Probability
53.2%
Model Edge
+29.8%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Pitcher - Strikeouts83.0%—53.2%1.20+29.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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JP Sears (ATH) Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-114)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Padres host the Blue Jays, all eyes will be on JP Sears, who’s been navigating some choppy waters lately. With his strikeout rate dipping and facing a lineup like Toronto’s, which boasts some serious contact hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, the under on Sears’ strikeouts at 3.5 looks enticing. Sears has averaged just over two strikeouts per outing this season, struggling to find his rhythm against teams with high batting averages. The Blue Jays rank among the league leaders in making contact, which doesn’t bode well for a pitcher aiming to rack up Ks. Plus, with the Padres’ potent offense likely to keep the game competitive, Sears may not even see a full slate of innings. Given these factors, it's hard to envision him surpassing that 3.5 mark tonight. Embrace the under and let the numbers speak.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Pitcher - StrikeoutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
70%hit L10
L2065%
O 2.570%
O 3.570%
O 4.530%
O 5.530%
O 6.520%

JP Sears MLB strikeouts: cleared over 2.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - Hits AllowedSeason & recent formNo line posted
100%hit L10
Streak18L2095%
O 2.5100%
O 3.570%
O 4.570%
O 5.540%
O 6.520%
O 7.510%

JP Sears MLB hits allowed: cleared over 2.5 in 100% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
90%hit L10
Streak3L2080%
O 0.590%
O 1.560%
O 2.510%

JP Sears MLB walks: cleared over 0.5 in 90% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Pitcher - OutsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
17.4avg outs · L5
L2080%

JP Sears MLB outs: cleared over 15.5 in 80% of the last 10 games; averaging 17.4 outs over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Toronto Blue Jays @ San Diego Padres Pitcher - Strikeouts 3.5 Under -114 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

JP Sears (ATH) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for JP Sears is Under 3.5 on Pitcher - Strikeouts. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +29.8% on this pick. Their next game is Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres on Saturday 11 July at Petco Park, San Diego. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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