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Model picks & player props
Los Angeles Dodgers
VS
San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:18PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Petco Park, San Diego
Outdoor
Sun 28 Jun 2026, 8:10PM
20
Game markets graded
11
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: San Diego Padres 7.5 (Spread)
The model graded 31 markets for Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $1,900 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 94.7%, fair odds 1.06, book price +1800, model edge +89.4%. Tip-off Sun 28 Jun 2026, 8:10PM at Petco Park.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
San Diego Padres
+9.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
San Diego PadresSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
San Diego PadresSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Kris Bubic SPOut
  • Tyler Glasnow SPOut
  • Will Klein RPOut
  • Blake Snell SPOut
  • Gavin Stone SPOut
  • Bobby Miller SPOut
  • Dalton Rushing COut
  • Ben Casparius RPOut
  • Will Smith COut
  • Brock Stewart RPOut
  • Blake Treinen RPOut
  • Brusdar Graterol RPOut
  • Jake Cousins RPOut

Probable pitcher

Tarik Skubal SP

San Diego Padres

  • Lucas Giolito SPOut
  • Nick Pivetta SPOut
  • Joe Musgrove SPOut
  • Miguel Andujar DHOut
  • Samad Taylor LFOut
  • Jason Adam RPOut
  • David Morgan RPOut
  • Ramon Laureano LFOut
  • Bryan Hoeing RPOut

Probable pitcher

Casey Mize SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 2:10AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Fernando Tatis Jr. SDP Batter - Total Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Samad Taylor Batter - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Manny Machado SDP Batter - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Manny Machado SDP Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineSan Diego PadresNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Los Angeles Dodgers L52-3Free board11-5

San Diego Padres moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.2 runs/gm.

Run LineSan Diego Padres run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Los Angeles Dodgers L52-3

San Diego Padres spread form: last five 3-2, 2.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersNo line posted

San Diego Padres total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsSan Diego Padres team totalNo line posted
2.3runs we expect
L5 RF2.2L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Los Angeles Dodgers L52-3

San Diego Padres team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.2 runs/gm.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres — what the model found

Our model graded 31 betting markets for Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres — 20 on the game itself and 11 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
11
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 31 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 30 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres — recent results

San Diego Padres have won 3 of their last 5 games; Los Angeles Dodgers have won 1 of their last 5.

San Diego Padres — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–2HOUHome
L3–6HOUHome
W3–2HOUHome
W5–1ARIAway
L4–10ARIAway
Los Angeles Dodgers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1ARIAway
L2–4ARIAway
L3–4ARIAway
L1–5CHCAway
L6–7CHCAway

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres — recent meetings

These two have met 7 times recently: San Diego Padres won 2, Los Angeles Dodgers won 5.

DateSan Diego PadresLos Angeles DodgersWinner
Jul 503Los Angeles Dodgers
Jul 552San Diego Padres
Jul 434Los Angeles Dodgers
Jul 3712Los Angeles Dodgers
Jun 28315Los Angeles Dodgers
Jun 2824Los Angeles Dodgers
Jun 2771San Diego Padres

Who’s out or in doubt

22 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

San Diego Padres
PlayerStatus
Lucas Giolito SPOUT
Nick Pivetta SPOUT
Joe Musgrove SPOUT
Miguel Andujar DHOUT
Samad Taylor LFOUT
Jason Adam RPOUT
David Morgan RPOUT
Ramon Laureano LFOUT
Los Angeles Dodgers
PlayerStatus
Kris Bubic SPOUT
Tyler Glasnow SPOUT
Will Klein RPOUT
Blake Snell SPOUT
Gavin Stone SPOUT
Bobby Miller SPOUT
Dalton Rushing COUT
Ben Casparius RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Fernando Tatis Jr.. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers stats and odds.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers : Los Angeles Dodgers +2 (-182)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
9
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
28 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres +9.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres +10 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres +11 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres +7.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres +10.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres +8.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres +13.5 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres +13 ✓ HIT
28 Jun 26 Spread San Diego Padres +9 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Dodgers vs Padres, or as Padres vs Dodgers. The most recent game between them was Sunday 28 June 2026 at Petco Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 11 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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