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Model picks & player props
Chicago Cubs
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:07PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Tue 16 Sep 2025, 10:40PM
3
Game Picks
4
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Chicago Cubs (Moneyline)
For Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB), model win probability 57.7%, fair odds 1.73, book price +110, model edge +10.1%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Tue 16 Sep 2025, 10:40PM at PNC Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Chicago Cubs
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Chicago CubsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Trent Thornton RPDay-to-day
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Ethan Roberts RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Jameson Taillon SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Spencer Horwitz 1BOut
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Evan Sisk RPOut
  • Chris Devenski RPOut

Probable pitcher

Braxton Ashcraft SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 3:47AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 21 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability21 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Ian Happ CHC Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nico Hoerner CHC Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Oneil Cruz PIT Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Chicago Cubs L52-3Win rec6-7

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Chicago Cubs L52-3ATS6-8

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago CubsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
5.3implied team total
L5 RF8.6L5 RA2.4Home L54-1vs Chicago Cubs L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 4-1, 8.6 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 4.2 runs per game (2-3) while Chicago Cubs are at 6.8 (3-2); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 3.6 for Chicago Cubs.

4.2
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
6.8
Chicago Cubs runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs
Runs / game4.26.8
Hits / game10.210.6
Home runs / game1.02.2
Walks drawn / game4.22.4
Batter K / game8.89.2
Earned runs allowed / game3.63.6
Pitching K / game5.68.0
Walks allowed / game2.43.8
L5 record2-33-2

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

<p>Winning baseball bets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Ian Happ. Explore MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs stats and odds.</p>

Ian Happ (CHC) Over 0.5 Hits (-222)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Ian Happ's performance data makes a strong case for betting on over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market. His last five games reflect a consistent hitting performance, with an average of 2.2 hits overall and 1.6 hits while playing away. This is significant as the upcoming game is an away game for the Chicago Cubs. Furthermore, Happ has a current hit streak of 3 in away games, indicating a strong momentum. When facing the Pittsburgh Pirates, Happ's average hits increase to 1.8, suggesting he performs well against this particular team. His plate appearances are also high, averaging around 4.8 both overall and in away games, providing ample opportunities for hits. These statistics collectively suggest a high probability of Happ achieving over 0.5 hits in the upcoming game.

Ian Happ (CHC) Over 0.5 Hits (-222)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Ian Happ for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits Alternate market is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Happ's last five games show an average of 2.2 hits per game overall and 1.6 hits when playing away. This indicates a consistent ability to hit, even in an away context. His plate appearance averages further support this, with 4.8 overall and 5 when playing away, suggesting ample opportunities to hit. Additionally, Happ has a current hit streak of 2 games overall and 3 games away, demonstrating a recent trend of successful hitting. His performance against the Pirates specifically also favors this bet, with an average of 1.8 hits over the last five games. Therefore, the statistics suggest a high probability of Happ achieving over 0.5 hits in the upcoming game.

Nico Hoerner (CHC) Under 1.5 Hits (-233)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 1.5 bet for Nico Hoerner in the Batter Hits market is a good choice based on his recent performance data. Over his last five games, Hoerner's overall hits average is 1, which is lower than the line of 1.5. His average remains consistent when looking at his performance away games and against the Pittsburgh Pirates specifically, with averages of 1.4 and 1.2 hits respectively. His plate appearances averages also suggest that he is not getting many opportunities to hit, with averages ranging from 4.2 to 5. The fact that his overall current hit streak is 0 and his away hit streak is only 1 further indicates that he is not consistently hitting well. Therefore, the data suggests that it is unlikely that Hoerner will exceed 1.5 hits in the upcoming game.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Tuesday 16 September 2025 at PNC Park. The model has generated 3 game picks and 4 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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