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Model picks & player props
Chicago Cubs
VS
Pittsburgh Pirates

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 11, 10:06PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
PNC Park, Pittsburgh
Outdoor
Sat 25 Jul 2026, 10:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 6.5 (Total Runs)
The model graded 20 markets for Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $264 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 49.5%, fair odds 2.02, book price +164, model edge +11.6%. Tip-off Sat 25 Jul 2026, 10:40PM at PNC Park.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Chicago Cubs -2.5 · $100 returned $390

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 559 of 1,032 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 5.5
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $363
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Under
8
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Chicago CubsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PiratesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Chicago Cubs

  • Edward Cabrera SPOut
  • Shelby Miller RPOut
  • Riley Martin RPOut
  • Phil Maton RPOut
  • Matt Shaw RFOut
  • Hunter Harvey RPOut
  • Daniel Palencia RPOut
  • Ben Brown RPOut
  • Justin Steele SPOut
  • Gavin Hollowell RPOut
  • Hoby Milner RPOut
  • Porter Hodge RPOut
  • Cade Horton SPOut
  • Tyler Austin 1BOut

Probable pitcher

Shota Imanaga SP

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez CDay-to-day
  • Oneil Cruz CFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut

Probable pitcher

Paul Skenes SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 10:45PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 19 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability19 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePittsburgh PiratesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePittsburgh Pirates run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates spread form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago CubsNo line posted

Pittsburgh Pirates total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPittsburgh Pirates team totalNo line posted
1.3runs we expect
L5 RF1.6L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Chicago Cubs L52-3

Pittsburgh Pirates team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.6 runs/gm.

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent results

Pittsburgh Pirates have won 1 of their last 5 games; Chicago Cubs have won 4 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–11NYMHome
W9–0NYMHome
L4–6NYMHome
L2–5MILAway
L2–4MILAway
Chicago Cubs — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W10–2KCAway
W6–4KCAway
L3–6KCAway
W3–2TORHome
W5–1LADHome

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Pittsburgh Pirates are scoring 3.4 runs per game (3-2) while Chicago Cubs are at 6.0 (4-1); Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 2.4 for Chicago Cubs.

3.4
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
6.0
Chicago Cubs runs/G
Last 5 gamesPittsburgh PiratesChicago Cubs
Runs / game3.46.0
Hits / game4.45.4
Home runs / game0.41.0
Walks drawn / game2.02.2
Batter K / game5.23.4
Earned runs allowed / game2.22.4
Pitching K / game4.63.2
Walks allowed / game2.01.4
L5 record3-24-1

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Pittsburgh Pirates won 1, Chicago Cubs won 2.

DatePittsburgh PiratesChicago CubsWinner
Jul 2687Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 25011Chicago Cubs
Jul 2423Chicago Cubs

Who’s out or in doubt

19 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Oneil Cruz CFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Chicago Cubs
PlayerStatus
Edward Cabrera SPOUT
Shelby Miller RPOUT
Riley Martin RPOUT
Phil Maton RPOUT
Matt Shaw RFOUT
Hunter Harvey RPOUT
Daniel Palencia RPOUT
Ben Brown RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs. Get predictions and top picks. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs stats and odds.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs : Over 0.5 totals_1st_1_innings (+122)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs this Saturday, the stage is set for a high-scoring affair. Both teams have shown a penchant for offensive fireworks lately, with the Cubs racking up a solid .280 batting average over their last ten games, while the Pirates have been no slouches either, consistently finding ways to plate runs. On the mound, while the Pirates' starter has had moments of brilliance, they've also struggled with command, allowing a good number of earned runs. The Cubs’ lineup, with their aggressive approach, seems poised to exploit any mistakes. With both teams eager to make a mark as the season heats up, expect a lively atmosphere at PNC Park. Given the current trajectory of both offenses, betting on over 0.5 runs feels less like a gamble and more like a logical step towards cashing in on what promises to be an entertaining contest.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
25 Jul 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Chicago Cubs ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Moneyline Chicago Cubs ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -2.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Spread Chicago Cubs -1.5 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Spread Chicago Cubs +1 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Spread Chicago Cubs +1.5 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Spread Chicago Cubs +2 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Spread Chicago Cubs +2.5 ✓ HIT
24 Jul 26 Moneyline Chicago Cubs ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Cubs vs Pirates, or as Pirates vs Cubs. The most recent game between them was Saturday 25 July 2026 at PNC Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
Chicago Cubs 2–1 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates8–7Pittsburgh Pirates
25 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates0–11Chicago Cubs
24 Jul 2026Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–3Chicago Cubs
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