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Model picks & player props
Colorado Rockies
VS
Cleveland Guardians

Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 10:24PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Progressive Field, Cleveland
Outdoor
Mon 28 Jul 2025, 10:40PM
6
Game markets graded
5
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Colorado Rockies (Moneyline)
The model graded 11 markets for Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $1,500 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 21.6%, fair odds 4.62, book price +1400, model edge +15.0%. Tip-off Mon 28 Jul 2025, 10:40PM at Progressive Field.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Colorado Rockies
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Colorado RockiesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Colorado Rockies

  • Jaden Hill RPOut
  • Jose Quintana SPOut
  • Jeff Criswell RPOut
  • Chase Dollander SPOut
  • Welinton Herrera RPOut
  • McCade Brown SPOut
  • RJ Petit RPOut
  • Pierson Ohl RPOut
  • Kris Bryant DHOut

Probable pitcher

Gabriel Hughes SP

Cleveland Guardians

  • Slade Cecconi SPOut
  • Shawn Armstrong RPOut
Availability updated Aug 11, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jose Ramirez CLE Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Tyler Freeman COL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brenton Doyle COL Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jose Ramirez CLE Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Nolan Jones CLE Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCleveland GuardiansNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA2.4Home L55-0vs Colorado Rockies L55-0Free board12-10

Cleveland Guardians moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Run LineCleveland Guardians run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.2L5 RA2.4Home L55-0vs Colorado Rockies L55-0

Cleveland Guardians spread form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado RockiesNo line posted

Cleveland Guardians total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCleveland Guardians team totalNo line posted
2.5runs we expect
L5 RF3.2L5 RA2.4Home L55-0vs Colorado Rockies L55-0

Cleveland Guardians team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.2 runs/gm.

Colorado Rockies @ Cleveland Guardians — what the model found

Our model graded 11 betting markets for Colorado Rockies at Cleveland Guardians — 6 on the game itself and 5 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

6
Game markets graded
5
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 11 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 10 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians — recent results

Cleveland Guardians have won 1 of their last 5 games; Colorado Rockies have won 1 of their last 5.

Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–5CHWAway
L3–6CHWAway
W8–2CHWAway
L6–13NYMHome
L5–6NYMHome
Colorado Rockies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–7STLAway
L2–3STLAway
W8–6STLAway
L7–9TBHome
L0–4TBHome

Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cleveland Guardians are scoring 3.8 runs per game (2-3) while Colorado Rockies are at 4.3 (2-3); Cleveland Guardians pitchers are allowing 3.4 earned runs per game versus 2.8 for Colorado Rockies.

3.8
Cleveland Guardians runs/G
4.3
Colorado Rockies runs/G
Last 5 gamesCleveland GuardiansColorado Rockies
Runs / game3.84.3
Hits / game6.65.6
Home runs / game0.60.6
Walks drawn / game2.43.9
Batter K / game4.28.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.42.8
Pitching K / game9.85.1
Walks allowed / game3.03.2
L5 record2-32-3

Who’s out or in doubt

11 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Slade Cecconi SPOUT
Shawn Armstrong RPOUT
Colorado Rockies
PlayerStatus
Jaden Hill RPOUT
Jose Quintana SPOUT
Jeff Criswell RPOUT
Chase Dollander SPOUT
Welinton Herrera RPOUT
McCade Brown SPOUT
RJ Petit RPOUT
Pierson Ohl RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Colorado Rockies @ Cleveland Guardians — model preview

Deep dive into Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Brenton Doyle. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies stats and odds.

Brenton Doyle (COL) Over 0.5 Hits (-185)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Brenton Doyle's recent performance data indicates a strong probability of him achieving over 0.5 hits in the upcoming game against the Cleveland Guardians. His last five games show an overall average of 1.8 hits, and even when playing away, his average remains solid at 1 hit. This consistency is encouraging, particularly when combined with his plate appearance averages, which are 3.8 overall and 4 when playing away. The fact that Doyle averages 1.2 hits against the Guardians specifically also strengthens the case for this bet. While his current hit streak is zero, his consistent performance in recent games suggests a high likelihood of him securing at least one hit in the upcoming game. Therefore, betting on Brenton Doyle for Over 0.5 in the Batter Hits market is a statistically sound choice.

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Guardians in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Rockies vs Guardians, or as Guardians vs Rockies. The most recent game between them was Monday 28 July 2025 at Progressive Field. The model has generated 6 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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