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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Cincinnati Reds

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:12PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Wed 17 Jun 2026, 4:40PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Cincinnati Reds (Moneyline)
The model graded 20 markets for New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $214 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 68.4%, fair odds 1.46, book price +114, model edge +21.7%. Tip-off Wed 17 Jun 2026, 4:40PM at Great American Ball Park.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 9.5 · $100 returned $214

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Cincinnati RedsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Christian Scott SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Spencer Steer 1BOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut
  • Hunter Greene SPOut
  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:15PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.6Home L52-3vs New York Mets L52-3

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.6Home L52-3vs New York Mets L52-3

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
1.6runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA1.6Home L52-3vs New York Mets L52-3

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.8 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds — recent results

Cincinnati Reds have won 2 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5.

Cincinnati Reds — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–7WSHAway
L2–8WSHAway
L3–5WSHAway
W6–5ATHHome
W3–2ATHHome
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W11–1PITAway
L0–9PITAway
W6–4PITAway
W13–6CLEAway
W6–5CLEAway

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 4.6 runs per game (3-2) while New York Mets are at 3.4 (2-3); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 3.8 for New York Mets.

4.6
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
3.4
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsNew York Mets
Runs / game4.63.4
Hits / game4.04.6
Home runs / game1.60.6
Walks drawn / game2.62.6
Batter K / game3.24.2
Earned runs allowed / game1.23.8
Pitching K / game3.04.2
Walks allowed / game2.42.4
L5 record3-22-3

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Cincinnati Reds won 2, New York Mets won 1.

DateCincinnati RedsNew York MetsWinner
Jun 1719New York Mets
Jun 1653Cincinnati Reds
Jun 15120Cincinnati Reds

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cincinnati Reds
PlayerStatus
Spencer Steer 1BOUT
Brandon Williamson SPOUT
Hunter Greene SPOUT
Blake Dunn CFOUT
Nick Lodolo SPOUT
Tony Santillan RPOUT
Graham Ashcraft RPOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Austin Warren RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Cincinnati Reds playing New York Mets. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets stats and odds.

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets : Over 10 Total Runs (+125)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
17 Jun 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds +4 ✗ MISS
17 Jun 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds -4.5 ✗ MISS
17 Jun 26 Moneyline Cincinnati Reds ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Reds, or as Reds vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 17 June 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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