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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Cincinnati Reds

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Outdoor
Wed 17 Jun 2026, 4:40PM
20
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Cincinnati Reds (Moneyline)
For New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds (MLB), model win probability 68.4%, fair odds 1.46, book price +114, model edge +21.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Wed 17 Jun 2026, 4:40PM at Great American Ball Park.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Cincinnati RedsMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cincinnati RedsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Freddy Peralta SP

Cincinnati Reds

  • Blake Dunn CFOut
  • Spencer Steer 1BDay-to-day
  • Matt McLain 2BOut
  • Tony Santillan RPOut
  • Graham Ashcraft RPOut
  • Nick Lodolo SPOut
  • Brandon Williamson SPOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Abbott SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 10:51AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCincinnati RedsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs New York Mets L52-3Win rec4-9

Cincinnati Reds moneyline form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LineCincinnati Reds run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs New York Mets L52-3ATS4-10

Cincinnati Reds spread form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNo line posted

Cincinnati Reds total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCincinnati Reds team totalNo line posted
3.5implied team total
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.2Home L53-2vs New York Mets L52-3

Cincinnati Reds team total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cincinnati Reds are scoring 4.6 runs per game (3-2) while New York Mets are at 3.4 (2-3); Cincinnati Reds pitchers are allowing 1.2 earned runs per game versus 3.8 for New York Mets.

4.6
Cincinnati Reds runs/G
3.4
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesCincinnati RedsNew York Mets
Runs / game4.63.4
Hits / game4.04.6
Home runs / game1.60.6
Walks drawn / game2.62.6
Batter K / game3.24.2
Earned runs allowed / game1.23.8
Pitching K / game3.04.2
Walks allowed / game2.42.4
L5 record3-22-3

New York Mets @ Cincinnati Reds — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Cincinnati Reds playing New York Mets. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets stats and odds.</p>

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets : Over 10 Total Runs (+125)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets : Over 11 Total Runs (+179)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets : Over 7.5 Total Runs (-196)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets : Over 8.5 Total Runs (-141)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets : Over 8 Total Runs (-172)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets : Over 7 Total Runs (-278)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
17 Jun 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds -4 ✗ MISS
17 Jun 26 Spread Cincinnati Reds 1.5 ✗ MISS
17 Jun 26 Moneyline Cincinnati Reds ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Wednesday 17 June 2026 at Great American Ball Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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