Bruno Lopes vs Diyar Nurgozhay Prediction & Picks: Odds Analysis & Top Props

I'm going with Diyar Nurgozhay to win by more than 3.5 points against Bruno Lopes. Nurgozhay is known for his strong wrestling and can control the fight on the ground. He'll need to take Lopes down and score points to cover this spread. Lopes is a tough striker, but if Nurgozhay sticks to his game plan, he has a good chance to win convincingly. Just remember, anything can happen in a fight, so while the numbers look promising, there's no guarantee. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Bruno Lopes: last five L-L-W-W-L, dropped the last 2, 6% of career wins came by knockout, 133 days since the last fight
• Diyar Nurgozhay: last five W-L-L-W, on a 1-fight win streak, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 154 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Bruno Lopes v Diyar Nurgozhay. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.