Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas Prediction & Picks: Winning Game Angles

For Bilal Hasan to cover a spread of -3.5 against Nilson Rojas, he needs to control the fight and score more points than Rojas. Hasan is seen as a strong favorite, and our numbers suggest he could win by a solid margin. His striking skills should help him land more effective hits, which will be key in this matchup. The most concrete risk is that Rojas has a similar reach, which could make it tougher for Hasan to dominate. Still, with Hasan's experience and ability to score, he is likely to keep Rojas on the defensive and pull ahead in points. It could be a competitive fight, but Hasan has what it takes to cover that spread. It was priced at -357 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.80 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

• Denise Gomes: last five W-W-W-W-L, on a 4-fight win streak, 20% of career wins came by knockout, 292 days since the last fight
• Jack Jenkins: last five W-L-W-L-W, on a 1-fight win streak, 11% of career wins came by knockout, 334 days since the last fight
• Jingnan Xiong: last five L, dropped the last 1, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 89 days since the last fight
• Julia Polastri: last five L-W-L-W-L, dropped the last 1, 5% of career wins came by knockout, 124 days since the last fight
• Kevin Borjas: last five W-L-L-W-L, on a 1-fight win streak, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 68 days since the last fight
• Levi Rodrigues Jr.: last five L, dropped the last 1, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 40 days since the last fight
• Rei Tsuruya: last five W-L-W, on a 1-fight win streak, 8% of career wins came by knockout, 89 days since the last fight
• Sean Woodson: last five L-W-W-W-W, dropped the last 1, 19% of career wins came by knockout, 502 days since the last fight
• Song Yadong: last five W-L-W-L-W, on a 1-fight win streak, 15% of career wins came by knockout, 89 days since the last fight
• Umar Nurmagomedov: last five W-W-L-W-W, on a 2-fight win streak, 5% of career wins came by knockout, 215 days since the last fight
• Yan Xiaonan: last five L-W-L-W-W, dropped the last 1, 4% of career wins came by knockout, 502 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Bilal Hasan v Nilson Rojas. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.