On Sunday 20 September 2026, Gable Steveson takes on Sean Sharaf in the UFC. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Over 0.5 Total Rounds, priced at -164 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Over 0.5 Total Rounds (-164)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

The odds for the total rounds in the fight between Gable Steveson and Sean Sharaf are set at -169 for over 0.5 rounds. Our numbers show this has a good chance of hitting, especially since both fighters are skilled in their own ways. Gable has a strong wrestling background, while Sean can strike effectively. This means they might end up in a back-and-forth, which usually leads to more action in the ring. One solid reason to consider this bet is that the fighters are closely matched in durability and skill. However, there's a slight risk if one of them can quickly finish the fight. Still, with their styles and strengths, it's likely we'll see more than just a quick exchange. So, betting on over 0.5 rounds seems like a solid choice for this matchup. It was priced at -164 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Sean Sharaf +3.5 on the Line (+750)

Odds available at Bovada at time of publishing

Gable Steveson and Sean Sharaf are set for a thrilling match, and one interesting detail is that Sharaf's reach is just a little shorter than Steveson's, which might make a difference in their fighting styles. Steveson is known for his wrestling, while Sharaf will need to rely on his striking skills to keep the fight at a distance. Betting on Sharaf +3.5 gives you a chance that he can stay competitive, even if the odds are against him. Our numbers suggest the match could end very close, about 3.5 points apart. The biggest risk is that Steveson's wrestling might overwhelm Sharaf if he gets too close. Still, this bet offers a fun chance for a surprise! It was priced at +750 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $85 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Sean Sharaf to Win (+1350)

Odds available at Betfair at time of publishing

Gable Steveson is younger and has a strong wrestling background, which can be tough for any opponent. However, Sean Sharaf has the chance to surprise everyone with his striking skills. His ability to keep the fight standing and land clean shots makes him a dangerous underdog in this matchup. The odds are in Sharaf's favor as a long shot, but the risk is that Steveson could use his wrestling to control the fight. Still, at +850 odds, it could be worth taking a chance on Sharaf pulling off an upset. There's always excitement in a fight, especially when one fighter is looking to make a statement. It was priced at +1350 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $145 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

The tale of the tape:

  • Gable Steveson: last five W, won the last fight, 25% of career wins came by knockout, 71 days since the last fight
  • Sean Sharaf: last five L-L, dropped the last 2, 0% of career wins came by knockout, 280 days since the last fight

That is how our model reads Gable Steveson v Sean Sharaf. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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